On Dec. 9, the quantum computer research organization of Google, 'Quantum AI,' unexpectedly unveiled a new quantum computer called 'Willow.' Willow showed astonishing performance by solving a problem that would take 10 septillion years (10 to the power of 24) in just 5 minutes. Ten septillion years is a longer time than the history of the universe.
Willow succeeded in significantly reducing quantum errors, which are the biggest obstacle to the commercialization of quantum computers. Hartmut Neven, the founder of Quantum AI, said, "The Willow chip has demonstrated remarkable achievements in error correction and performance in quantum computing and will serve as a foundation for building large-scale quantum computers."
Following the unveiling of Willow, shares of Alphabet, Google's parent company, rose by more than 5%. At the same time, the prices of cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin plummeted. After Donald Trump was elected President of the United States and the cryptocurrency-friendly Elon Musk became more prominent, the price of Bitcoin, which had been skyrocketing for a while, hesitated with the emergence of Willow.
It is only natural for Alphabet's stock price to rise after Google introduced the fastest quantum computer in the world. However, why did the prices of cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin drop sharply?
The Wall Street Journal (WSJ) analyzed, "Bitcoin's rally is facing an unexpected threat from quantum computing." Cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin are based on a security system grounded in blockchain. Blockchain is a system that disperses and shares information across a network of all participants rather than a single central server. To hack or tamper with it, one would need to simultaneously attack the networks of all participants scattered around the world, something no computer technology can achieve. This is why blockchain is referred to as an impenetrable shield.
However, the situation has changed with the emergence of quantum computers. Quantum computers possess computational power that can potentially exceed the security performance of blockchain. While there are many hurdles to overcome, such as error correction and commercialization, a technology that could undermine the security of blockchain has emerged. The Hudson Institute, a U.S. think tank, warned that if hacking using quantum computers becomes a reality, losses could amount to $3 trillion (approximately 4,399.5 trillion won). Arthur Herman, a researcher at the Hudson Institute, pointed out, "If someone develops hacking capabilities with quantum computers and decides to use it against cryptocurrencies, it will become a ticking time bomb waiting to explode."
Experts believe that the likelihood of such threats becoming a reality immediately is low. Google also noted following the unveiling of Willow that, "To break the cryptographic systems used in cryptocurrencies, it would take at least 10 years," adding, "400 million qubits will be needed for actual hacking." Quantum computers use qubits, which are superposed units of 0 and 1 for calculations, meaning the more qubits there are, the better the performance. Google's previous quantum computer, Sycamore, had 67 qubits, and the newly unveiled Willow has only 105 qubits. As the number of qubits increases, the probability of errors during calculations also rises, so it's currently uncertain when 105 qubits can be scaled up to 400 million.
Han Sang-wook, president of the Korean Quantum Information Society (KIST chief researcher), also remarked, "Disassembling existing security technologies like blockchain with quantum computers is still a long way off technically," adding, "I suspect that the price movement reflects people's anxieties about Bitcoin." Emin Gün Sirer, founder of the cryptocurrency Avalanche, also said in an interview with the WSJ, "There could be a catastrophe at some point in the future, but that point is far enough away that there is no reason to feel fear."
Experts believe that while the current speed of quantum computer development does not pose a threat to existing security systems, it is crucial to begin preparations for the quantum era now. At some point in the next 10 to 15 years, quantum computers will likely surpass today's security systems, and it could take even longer to establish a new security framework in response.
Han Sang-wook stated, "Preparing and transitioning to a cryptographic system that can counter quantum computers could take anywhere from 10 years at the shortest to 20 or 30 years at the longest," adding, "While quantum computers are not currently advanced enough to threaten blockchains, cryptographic systems that lag behind blockchains need to begin preparations for the quantum computer era now."
In fact, the National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST) has established standards for quantum-safe algorithms that can respond to attacks from quantum computers, and efforts are underway at the private level to develop quantum-resistant cryptographic systems.
There is also a strong possibility that the pace of development for quantum computers will accelerate. With the competition in quantum computer development intensifying, particularly among Google and IBM, vast funds are being invested in quantum research and development. A domestic quantum researcher remarked, "Back in 2019, when Google launched Sycamore, it was expected to take another 10 years for a quantum computer like Willow to appear, but Google released Willow in just 5 years," adding, "The speed of quantum computer development is accelerating, making predictions like 5 or 10 years meaningless."
Google is already aiming for what comes next after Willow. The company's goal is to implement calculations that are 'useful and surpass existing computers' using quantum computers. While Willow demonstrated overwhelming computational capabilities compared to supercomputers, this was measured through a program called the RCS benchmark. In practical applications, its performance is still quite similar to that of existing computers. Hartmut Neven, head of Quantum AI, stated, "Our next goal is to develop algorithms that solve practical and commercially useful problems in areas that are currently impossible with existing computers, such as new drug development, high-efficiency battery design, and nuclear fusion energy research."
Investment in quantum computers is also increasing in South Korea. When considering the U.S. as 100, South Korea's quantum computer technology level is only at 2.3 points. The government announced the Quantum Initiative last year and plans to develop a 1,000-qubit quantum computer and train 3,500 quantum personnel by 2035. To this end, they are increasing investment, including expanding the quantum-related budget to 200 billion won this year.
In South Korea, government-funded research institutes, including the Korea Institute of Science and Technology (KIST), the Korea Research Institute of Standards and Science, and the Electronics and Telecommunications Research Institute (ETRI), are developing the core technologies of quantum computers such as quantum processors, software, and quantum sensors. Corporations such as Norma have also entered into the quantum computer development sector. Norma even signed a quantum computer export contract worth $18 million with Saudi Arabia at the end of last year.
Jung Hyun-cheol, CEO of Norma, stated in an interview with CHOSUNBIZ, "While superconducting materials were the most critical during the early stages of quantum computer development, optimization through semiconductor technology is needed for the quantum industry ecosystem to form," adding, "With well-established infrastructure in related industries, South Korea, the U.S., and Taiwan will inevitably remain at the center of quantum computer development."