According to the global wildlife aircraft collision databases, AVISURE, there have been 795 fatalities from major incidents caused by bird strikes since 1912. Bird strikes peaked in the northern hemisphere during late August, the time when migratory birds move to wintering grounds. In the southern hemisphere, they occurred mainly in early April. However, scientists noted that due to climate change and rising global temperatures, migratory patterns and breeding times of birds are changing, raising the risk of bird strikes during winter. The recent incident involving Jeju Air in Muan, South Jeolla Province, could be a representative example.
According to AVISURE, over the past 100 years, the number of people who died in major accidents caused by bird strikes worldwide includes 512 passengers and 283 military personnel. The number of aircraft involved in these accidents includes 172 passenger planes and 506 military fighter jets. The property damage is estimated to reach billions of dollars each year (about trillions of won). The global aviation industry and military authorities have focused their responses primarily during the spring and fall when the risk of bird strikes is high. Climate change has disrupted these responses.
A research team led by Tirth Vaishnav, a professor at Wellington University in New Zealand, published findings in the international journal "Ecological Solutions and Evidence" in September regarding the seasonal frequency of bird strikes occurring in the northern and southern hemispheres. Professor Vaishnav said, "We discovered that bird strike incidents peak in the fall," and explained, "The seasonal trend of bird strikes appears to be influenced by the breeding and migratory patterns of birds."
The research team analyzed papers and news reports on bird strikes to investigate the timing of incidents that occurred at 122 airports in 16 countries worldwide. The results showed that the highest number of incidents occurs in late August in the northern hemisphere and early April in the southern hemisphere.
The reason bird strike incidents occur frequently during specific times is linked to the breeding and migration periods of birds. Late August in the northern hemisphere is when newly fledged birds begin to fly. It is also the time when migratory birds move from high-latitude areas to equatorial regions to spend the winter. Conversely, in the southern hemisphere, migratory birds spend the summer in high-latitude areas and move to lower-latitude regions in April to winter.
Recently, changing breeding and migration times due to climate change have made it increasingly difficult to predict bird strike incidents. As temperatures rise, the timing of migratory birds moving to wintering areas is gradually delaying. Conversely, the migration of birds moving from equatorial regions to high-latitude areas for summer is speeding up. This indicates that the timing of high-risk periods for bird strikes is changing. Ecologists advise that ecological research may help prevent bird strike incidents.
In fact, such changes are also occurring in the Korean Peninsula, where more than 100 species of migratory birds reside. Migratory birds that used to migrate from Korea to Southeast Asia for wintering are now becoming resident birds as rising temperatures due to warming have stopped their migration. If this trend continues, there may be an increase in the number of birds residing in Korea during winter, leading to a rise in bird strike incidents. Professor Vaishnav stated, "Predictions of bird strikes need to consider the behavioral changes of local and migratory birds," and added, "Research on the altered migration timings due to climate change is necessary."
Reference materials
Ecological Solutions and Evidence (2024), DOI: https://doi.org/10.1002/2688-8319.12384
Scientific Reports (2019), DOI: https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-019-54228-5