This year, the drug with the highest sales in the global market was the immune checkpoint inhibitor "Keytruda" from the U.S. company Merck (MSD). The second was "Ozempic," a diabetes medication from Denmark's Novo Nordisk. In contrast, last year's second-ranked drug, "Humira," an autoimmune disorder treatment from AbbVie, has fallen out of the top 10 due to the emergence of generic drugs following its patent expiration.
On the 18th, Eugene Investment & Securities released a report announcing the top 10 drugs ranked by sales in the world market this year. The rankings were based on sales figures presented by Bloomberg's consensus and Nature Drug Discovery. The report also projected the top 10 drugs by sales for 2025.
According to the report, "Keytruda" is expected to have sales of $29.1 billion (about 42 trillion won) this year, maintaining its status as the top-selling drug for another year. Immune checkpoint inhibitors are treatments that do not directly target cancer cells but induce the body's immune cells to attack cancer cells. Since they utilize immune cells in the body, they have no concerns about toxic side effects, unlike conventional cancer treatments, and are highly effective.
"Keytruda" is also famous for having cured former U.S. President Jimmy Carter's melanoma, which had metastasized to his brain in late 2015. The drug has seen 15 consecutive quarters of increasing sales since the first quarter of 2021. The key to this continued growth in sales lies in its expanding indications recognized for their therapeutic effects. Currently, there are over 30 cancer types for which it has acknowledged therapeutic efficacy. It has six indications, including first-line monotherapy for metastatic non-small cell lung cancer.
The second spot is expected to be held by "Ozempic," followed by the third-ranked atopy treatment "Dupixent" (Sanofi & Regeneron), the fourth-ranked anticoagulant "Eliquis" (Bristol-Myers Squibb & Pfizer), and the fifth-ranked AIDS treatment "Biktarvy" (Gilead). The sixth spot is forecasted to be occupied by the diabetes medication "Mounjaro" (Eli Lilly), seventh by multiple myeloma treatment "Darzalex" (Johnson & Johnson), eighth by autoimmune disorder treatment "Skyrizi" (AbbVie), ninth by autoimmune disorder treatment "Stelara" (Johnson & Johnson), and tenth by autoimmune disorder treatment "Opdivo" (Bristol-Myers Squibb).
A notable change this year is the rise of drugs for metabolic diseases. The diabetes medication "Ozempic," which was the third highest in annual sales last year, has risen to second place, overtaking "Humira," while the competing drug "Mounjaro" has rapidly climbed to sixth place, entering the top 10 for the first time. "Ozempic" and "Mounjaro" are glucagon-like peptide-1 (GLP-1) analogs. The human GLP-1 hormone promotes the secretion of insulin, which regulates blood sugar levels. At the same time, it controls neurons in the hypothalamus to reduce appetite after meals and induce a feeling of fullness. Both "Ozempic" and "Mounjaro" are medications designed to mimic this mechanism to control and treat blood sugar and obesity.
Next year, further changes in rankings within the pharmaceutical market are expected. This is due to major drugs that have driven sales growth for global pharmaceutical companies facing imminent patent expirations, leading to a slowdown in sales growth.
Kwon Hae-soon from the Research Institute at Eugene Investment & Securities said, "The trend of sales decline due to the patent expirations of several blockbuster drugs (those with annual sales exceeding $1 billion) is expected to peak in 2028," adding, "Considering that the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) will take effect from 2026, a low-growth phase in the global pharmaceutical and bio industry is expected to continue for the next three years."
For instance, the autoimmune disorder treatment "Stelara" is expected to see its sales decrease by about 30% next year due to the patent expiration in the second half of this year. "Stelara" was developed by Janssen, the pharmaceutical subsidiary of Johnson & Johnson. Last year, its global sales were approximately 14 trillion won, but generic drugs (biosimilars) have already been launched in this market.
Samsung Bioepis, Celltrion, and Dong-A ST have all successfully developed the Stelara biosimilars "Fizzychiba," "Stekima," and "Imuldosa," respectively, and they have currently gained recommendation for approval from the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) and the European Medicines Agency (EMA) and are expected to be launched next year.
Kwon noted, "Next year, the global pharmaceutical and bio industry is likely to show a biased growth trend dominated by a few pharmaceutical companies," adding, "Among large pharmaceutical companies, those that will achieve sales growth of more than 5% by 2026 are likely to be Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk, which are dominating the metabolic disease treatment market with innovative research and development results."
Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly have each developed obesity treatments "Wegovy" and "Zepbound" from existing diabetes medications, launching them this year. The report from Eugene Investment & Securities projected that these obesity medications would enter the top 10 by sales next year. According to Bloomberg, starting from the third quarter of this year, sales of Novo Nordisk's diabetes and obesity treatments "Ozempic" and "Wegovy" have surpassed those of "Keytruda," and sales of "Mounjaro" and "Zepbound" are also growing rapidly.