The issue of vacant dwellings due to low birth rates and an aging population is becoming visible. It is a contradictory situation where it is difficult to secure a home, yet the number of unwanted vacant dwellings is increasing.
The vacant dwelling problem is expected to deepen, especially in regions with rapidly declining populations. This does not mean that the metropolitan area, including Seoul, is safe from vacant dwellings. In the metropolitan area, the likelihood of vacant dwellings increasing is high, particularly in areas with poor access to the city center. In the past, the phenomenon of rural-to-urban migration led to an increase in vacant dwellings in rural areas, but now the ongoing trends of low birth rates and aging populations are likely to result in increases in vacant dwellings in both metropolitan and rural areas. Projections suggest that by 2050, the number of houses left unoccupied will increase by over 111%.
◇380,000 dwellings vacant for more than a year… 10,724 in Seoul
According to the National Statistical Office's housing census, as of 2023, there are 1,534,919 vacant dwellings nationwide. Among them, the number of dwellings that have been unoccupied for more than a year amounts to 387,326.
Currently, vacant dwellings are concentrated in rural areas. About 68% of vacant dwellings are located in rural areas. Particularly, in rural areas experiencing rapid population decline, vacant dwellings account for 17.9% of the total. One out of five houses is unoccupied.
The metropolitan area, including Seoul, is not safe from the vacant dwelling problem. The number of vacant dwellings in Seoul is 107,681. When combined with Incheon's 84,414 and Gyeonggi's 286,140, the total number of vacant dwellings in the metropolitan area reaches 478,235. The number of dwellings that have been vacant for more than a year is also significant: ▲Seoul 10,724 ▲Incheon 10,752 ▲Gyeonggi 41,742, totaling 63,218. This means that 16.3% of the dwellings that have been vacant for over a year are located in the metropolitan area, including Seoul.
Starting from 2040, which is 15 years from now, the rate of increase in vacant dwellings is expected to accelerate. According to the Korea Future Research Institute, as the total number of households decreases around 2040, it is predicted that the actual housing prices will drop, leading to a rapid increase in vacant dwellings. Vacant dwellings are projected to reach 2.39 million by 2040 and 3.24 million by 2050, representing 9.1% and 13% of the total number of dwellings, respectively. In just 25 years, the number of vacant dwellings could increase by approximately 111.8%.
Professor Lee Yong-man of the Department of Real Estate at Hansung University noted at a seminar held by the Korea Future Population Research Institute, “Currently, about 2% appear to be pure vacant dwellings, but I think this could rise to nearly 8% by around 2050.”
◇Why are vacant dwellings increasing… Left vacant after inheritance or kept empty for redevelopment
The reasons for the emergence of vacant dwellings are complex. In rural areas with aging populations, it is common for houses to become vacant when elderly residents pass away. These houses are inherited by children, but the children often find it unfeasible to live in older homes, leaving them vacant. Selling the homes is also difficult, as finding buyers in rural areas is challenging. The rapid population decline due to low birth rates and aging is leading to an increasing number of vacant dwellings in rural areas.
Kim Sung-jin (pseudonym, 57), who left his family home in Gyeongnam's Goseong-gun vacant, said, “After my parents passed away, we sorted out the estate, but we couldn’t agree on what to do with the rural house,” and noted that “all my siblings settled in Seoul and only visit once or twice a year, so we discussed selling the house.” He added, “However, since there are memories of my childhood with my parents there, some siblings opposed the idea, so we decided to leave the house as it is for the time being,” and remarked, “To be honest, even if we tried to sell it, I'm not sure an old house would sell.”
Complicated ownership relationships regarding dwellings also contribute to the creation of vacant dwellings. An industry insider involved in the vacant dwelling maintenance sector explained, “When I contacted owners to maintain vacant dwellings, I found that some properties were tied up with in-laws and distant relatives,” adding, “In such cases, ownership is unclear, and it becomes difficult to reach an agreement among owners, leading to abandonment of maintenance.”
Owners might leave their homes vacant due to the aging of the dwellings. As of 2023, there are 462,861 vacant dwellings that have been around for more than 35 years. This indicates that 30.2% of all vacant dwellings have undergone significant aging. The decline of local industries and resulting job losses also contribute to the increase in vacant dwellings.
IDA Yae, a lead researcher at the Korea Land Institute, explained, “Internally, if the structure and functional aspects of the dwellings are poor, or if they are small and have poor access, their utilization decreases, increasing the likelihood of becoming vacant. Issues such as unresolved inheritance matters after the owner's death, or individuals leaving dwellings vacant after purchasing them for speculative purposes, contribute to the rise of vacant dwellings due to personal or psychological factors.”
In urban areas, vacant dwellings often arise due to redevelopment and other factors. The concentration of the vacant dwelling problem in central regions such as Yongsan and Jongno in Seoul is a result of these reasons. The lead researcher noted, “Vacant dwellings can emerge due to macro-social changes such as population outflows due to the decline of local industries or public policy decisions like new city developments and maintenance zone designations.”
◇When one or two empty dwellings arise… the residential environment deteriorates
Regions with vacant dwellings experience decline. Owners of vacant dwellings are likely to neglect their properties. Jeong Jeong-hee, a researcher at the Korea Land Institute, stated, “Due to the negative externalities caused by vacant dwellings, surrounding residents suffer, but vacant dwelling owners have little incentive to manage their properties since they do not incur additional expenses,” adding that “neglecting vacant dwellings can be viewed as a type of market failure where the personal interests of dwelling owners diverge from the public interest.”
This can lead to a decline in urban aesthetics and worsen hygiene. It also increases the risk of accidents such as fires and collapses. With no house owners present, there may be an increased risk of criminal activity. Such deterioration of the residential environment can harm nearby residents, potentially leading to the creation of additional vacant dwellings. This marks the beginning of the “infection” of vacant dwellings. Ultimately, this can result in a decrease in local economic vitality and community life, potentially leading to the area's extinction.
Areas with increasing vacant dwellings may see a decline in housing prices due to deteriorating living conditions. This makes it difficult for urban regeneration, including reconstruction and redevelopment, effectively slumifying the entire city. Ultimately, housing demand is likely to concentrate in urban centers, exacerbating polarization in the real estate market. The professor noted, “Urban renewal relies on rising housing prices; when housing prices stagnate, urban regeneration comes to a halt,” predicting that “once vacant dwellings start to appear, urban hollowing will be evident.”