Real estate experts predicted that this year's shortage of new apartment supply would negatively impact market prices. They noted that it is urgent to prepare measures such as continuous supply policies and the relaxation of reconstruction and redevelopment regulations.
On the 2nd, CHOSUNBIZ conducted a survey titled '2025 Real Estate Market Outlook' among 20 real estate experts. Of the respondents, 70%, or 14 individuals, forecasted that the shortage of new apartment supply this year would lead to an increase in real estate market prices. Furthermore, 5 out of 6 others also projected that while the supply would be insufficient, it would not significantly affect market prices, resulting in 19 out of 20 anticipating a supply shortage.
Regarding the scale of the supply shortage this year, half of the 20 experts predicted a shortage of about 50,000 to 100,000 units compared to last year. Additionally, 6 individuals (30%) anticipated a shortage of 10,000 to 50,000 units, 2 individuals (10%) expected a shortage of 100,000 to 150,000 units, and 1 individual (5%) believed there would be a shortage of more than 150,000 units, while another individual indicated 'no supply shortage.'
When asked about the factors that would most significantly impact housing prices (multiple responses allowed), 45% of all respondents identified supply shortage, ranking second after loan regulations (70%).
According to Real Estate R114, a total of 146,130 units are expected to be sold at 158 establishments nationwide this year. This figure is significantly lower than the minimum recorded in 2010 (172,670 units), which was the smallest since Real Estate R114 began its surveys in 2000.
Last year's sales market recorded an achievement of 83.7% as 222,173 out of the planned supply of 265,439 units were sold. Approximately 33% of the planned 36,231 units that were supposed to be sold last year have been carried over to this year.
Experts suggested that the most necessary policies for this year's real estate market include continuous supply policies, relaxation of reconstruction and redevelopment regulations, and normalization of the project financing market to address supply shortages.
Kim Je-kyung, head of Tumi Real Estate, said, 'While the current supply reduction may not be felt seriously, supply cannot be managed short-term but should be approached with a medium- to long-term perspective.' He emphasized that 'even during this period of chaos, a steady housing supply policy must be maintained without interruption.'
Song Seung-hyun, the representative of Cities and Economy, also stated, 'The most necessary policies for next year's real estate market are supply expansion and easing of financial regulations.' He added that 'we need to increase supply in urban areas by relaxing redevelopment and reconstruction regulations, and improve conditions for home buyers by relaxing loan regulations for actual users.' Song emphasized that 'alongside this, it is important to secure market stability by inducing properties from multi-homeowners through tax reforms and strengthening support for non-homeowners.'
Concerns were raised that the impacts of the state of emergency and impeachment politics would continue until the first half of next year, necessitating more attention to supply management. Professor Kim Jin-yu of the Department of Urban Transportation Engineering at Kyonggi University stated, 'The overall political and economic situation is adverse, making the real estate market very risky in the first half. We must do our best in market management.' He added, 'Policies to promote supply such as loan management for demand control and normalization of project financing (PF) are needed.'
In light of the expectation of a supply shortage, advice was given that stabilization of the rental market is necessary. Professor Ko Jun-seok of Yonsei University's Sangnam Business School noted, 'Considering the reality of housing supply shortages, stabilization of both the sales and rental markets is essential.' He stated that 'existing properties from multi-homeowners should be made available on the market to help stabilize prices, and measures should be taken to prevent rental prices from rising due to taxes being passed on to tenants. To achieve this, improvements such as lowering capital gains tax and abolishing the comprehensive real estate tax are necessary.'
※Survey respondents: 20 experts (listed in alphabetical order)
Ko Jun-seok, Professor at Yonsei University's Sangnam Business School; Kwon Dae-jung, Professor at Sogang University's Graduate School of Real Estate; Kim Kyu-jeong, Head of the Asset Succession Research Institute at Korea Investment and Securities; Kim Seong-hwan, Research Fellow at the Korea Construction Industry Research Institute; Kim Eun-sun, Lead of the Data Lab at Zigbang; Kim Je-kyung, Head of Tumi Real Estate; Kim Jin-yu, Professor at Kyonggi University's Department of Urban Transportation Engineering; Kim Hyo-seon, Chief Commissioner at NH Nonghyup Bank's Real Estate Division; Park Won-gap, Chief Commissioner at KB Kookmin Bank; Baek Gwang-je, Research Fellow at Kyobo Securities; Seo Jin-hyung, Professor at Kwangwoon University; Song Seung-hyun, Representative of Cities and Economy; Song In-ho, Head of the Economic Information Center at the Korea Development Institute; Shim Hyeong-seok, Head of the Woo-Dae-Bbang Research Institute; Woo Byeong-tak, Premier Pathfinder Commissioner at Shinhan Bank; Yoo Seon-jong, Professor at Konkuk University; Yoon Ji-hae, Senior Research Fellow at Real Estate R114; Lee Eun-hyung, Research Fellow at the Korea Construction Policy Research Institute; Jo Young-gwang, Research Fellow at Daewoo Construction; Ham Young-jin, Lab Head at Woori Bank.