There are analyses indicating that the technology gap in memory semiconductors between Samsung Electronics and China's ChangXin Memory Technologies (CXMT) and Yangtze Memory Technologies (YMTC) is rapidly narrowing. As the general DRAM market is being encroached upon by Chinese companies due to CXMT's supply surge, Samsung Electronics' NAND flash memory technology, which had established itself as the market leader, is now evaluated to have been caught up by YMTC. There are claims that with Samsung Electronics' next-generation memory development lagging, it is inevitable to revise strategies regarding research and development and product development.
According to industry reports on the 27th, the institutional sector of Samsung Electronics' Device Solutions (semiconductor) division is said to be experiencing difficulties in developing next-generation products and process technologies. Ahead of mass production of next-generation NAND flash, Samsung Electronics has decided to use Chinese YMTC's process patent concerning core processes such as 'hybrid bonding.' Hybrid bonding is a technology that directly adheres wafers without using bumps that serve as protrusions between the wafers. In the advanced DRAM business, they are currently redesigning the cutting-edge 10nm-class sixth-generation (1c) DRAM and it appears that the development of the next-generation 10nm-class seventh-generation (1d) DRAM is also not going smoothly.
◇ Even NAND allows for Chinese pursuit... “Strategies such as R&D and product development must be revised”
As Samsung Electronics decided to utilize YMTC's hybrid bonding patent ahead of mass production of 400-layer NAND flash, analyses suggest that YMTC has gained an edge in next-generation process technology. Until now, YMTC has not made a significant impact in the NAND market. As of the third quarter of last year, Samsung Electronics held a 35.2% market share and ranked first in the global NAND flash market, while SK hynix ranked second with a 20.6% market share. YMTC's share remains below 5%.
However, the situation has changed as YMTC has focused on developing hybrid bonding technology. Unlike Samsung Electronics and SK hynix, which concentrated on improving existing stacked methods, YMTC has focused on commercializing three-dimensional (3D) hybrid bonding technology for NAND in recent years. The hybrid bonding technology, which YMTC has named 'Xtacking,' emerged as a key processing technology to replace existing methods as NAND stacking levels approached 400 layers. Currently, Samsung Electronics and SK hynix are producing NAND chips with 286 layers and 321 layers, respectively.
Park Jaekun, a professor at Hanyang University's Department of Convergence Electronics Engineering, said, “Until now, Samsung Electronics and SK hynix have focused on silicon through-silicon via (TSV), which has primarily been utilized in NAND stacking,” and added, “YMTC has been proactive in technological development related to hybrid bonding for the past four to five years, allowing it to surpass in next-generation NAND process technologies.” A senior official at Samsung Electronics noted, “Allowing competitors to catch up in next-generation product development and processes means that a revision of strategies, including research and development and next-generation product planning, is inevitable.”
◇ D램 competitiveness also 'shaken'... “1c is being redesigned, 1d development is also slow”
The problem is that the competitiveness of Samsung Electronics' cutting-edge DRAM technology, which is pivotal to its semiconductor business, is also being shaken. Recently, Samsung Electronics decided to redesign the cutting-edge 1c DRAM chip. As advanced 10nm-class DRAM undergoes successive generations, the size shrinks while performance and power efficiency improve. Currently, Samsung Electronics, SK hynix, and Micron are competing in the market with their 1a and 1b DRAM as main products, and they are fully focused on product development to seize the 1c DRAM market.
The decision to redesign the 1c DRAM increases the possibility that Samsung Electronics will face challenges in seizing the market in the cutting-edge DRAM business. Redesigning the DRAM from scratch takes significant time as circuits need to be thoroughly redesigned, and additional re-designing of masks and components needed for mass production must be carried out. Micron, the third-largest memory semiconductor company in the world, announced on the 25th (local time) that it supplied samples of the 1c DRAM to clients, thus surpassing Samsung Electronics.
If the development of the 1c DRAM faces setbacks, it is likely that Samsung Electronics' sixth-generation high bandwidth memory (HBM4) business will also suffer a severe blow. Samsung Electronics has been criticized for falling behind in the artificial intelligence (AI) semiconductor era after losing its leadership to SK hynix in the fifth-generation HBM (HBM3E) market. To recover from the poor performance of the previous generation, Samsung Electronics has made a bet on applying the 1c DRAM to HBM4. Its competitor, SK hynix, plans to utilize the 1b DRAM in its HBM products.
Developments in next-generation 1d DRAM technology are also reported to be slower than anticipated. An industry insider noted, “Initially, it is believed that Samsung Electronics aimed to reduce the circuit line width of the 1d DRAM to around 10.3nm to 10.4nm,” adding, “However, limitations in current technology are expected to hinder achieving this goal.”