Forecasts suggest that overall DRAM prices will enter a declining phase in the first quarter of next year due to seasonal off-peak conditions and weakened demand attributed to global uncertainties.
According to market research firm TrendForce on the 30th, overall DRAM prices are expected to fall by 3 to 8% in the fourth quarter of this year, and the decline will widen to 8 to 13% in the first quarter of next year.
If the robust demand for high-bandwidth memory (HBM) is included this fourth quarter, overall DRAM prices have risen by 0 to 8%. However, in the first quarter of next year, even with HBM included, the decline will only reduce to a level of 0 to 5%, making it difficult to maintain an upward trend. This is because the prices of server and graphics DRAM products, which showed price increases in the fourth quarter, are expected to turn to a downward trend in the first quarter of next year.
TrendForce noted, "With the seasonal weakness and a slowdown in consumer demand for products like smartphones coinciding, the DRAM market in the first quarter of next year will face downward price pressure," adding that "early stockpiling by laptop manufacturers in preparation for potential tariffs from the Trump administration has further exacerbated the price decline."
In particular, the price of the latest server DRAM, DDR5, is expected to fall by about 3 to 8%, contrary to the 3 to 8% rise seen in the fourth quarter of this year. During the same period, the price drop for server DDR4 is likely to increase from 8 to 13% to 10 to 15%.
TrendForce stated, "In the first quarter of next year, server products will exhibit price weakness for both DDR5 and DDR4 due to seasonal demand weakness," and that "manufacturers have shifted a significant amount of DDR4 production capacity to DDR5 production, and some HBM production capacity has also been converted to DDR5, resulting in increased DDR5 supply."
The price decline for PC, mobile, and consumer DRAM products is expected to continue into the first quarter of next year, following the fourth quarter of this year.