With the inauguration of Donald Trump's second administration, the United States' emphasis on national priorities is expected to strengthen, and similar movements are anticipated in Europe under new leadership.

According to a report titled "Ursula von der Leyen's Second Term in the European Union (EU) Trade Policy" published on the 18th by the Korea International Trade Association (KITA) International Trade and Commerce Research Institute, Ursula von der Leyen, the President of the European Commission, is expected to prioritize enhancing industrial competitiveness and economic security in her second term.

Changes in the European Union (EU) trade policy. /Courtesy of Korea International Trade Association

The von der Leyen's second EU Commission launched this month is examining various measures to respond to economic contraction, weakened political momentum, intensified external competition, and the potential re-election of Trump in the United States. This is somewhat in contrast to the first EU Commission, which promoted trade policies centered around values such as environmental protection and human rights.

The second EU Commission is expected to shift the existing "Green Deal" policy to a "Clean Industry Deal," accelerating carbon neutrality goals while focusing on enhancing industrial competitiveness. Discussions are also underway regarding the "Buy European" policy, which prioritizes purchasing regional products in public procurements and introduces requirements for using eco-friendly steel in the automotive and wind power industries.

To counter China and protect regional industries, policies such as import regulations including anti-dumping and countervailing duties, the introduction of the Foreign Subsidies Regulation (FSR), export controls, and investment restrictions are planned to be strengthened. The Foreign Subsidies Regulation aims to address competitive distortions caused by foreign government subsidies in areas like public procurement and corporate mergers, where traditional import regulations struggle to respond.

Trends in the trade dependence of the United States and the European Union (EU) on China. /Courtesy of Korea International Trade Association

However, even while maintaining a policy to counter China, there are observations that it will be difficult for Europe to impose high tariffs like the United States given its high dependence on trade and investment with China. Among the 204 strategic items for which the EU is highly dependent on third countries, 64 items (about 31%) rely on China, and more than two-thirds of these items are vulnerable to export controls and other measures due to their dependence on China as a single source.

The report pointed out that domestic corporations should be aware of the indirect impacts of the EU's sanctions on Chinese companies. Concerns were raised that, similar to the epoxy resin case where the EU initiated an anti-dumping investigation in July, local companies harmed by China's oversupply might file complaints not only against Chinese companies but also against South Korean corporations.

Han Ah-reum, a senior researcher at the trade association, noted, "The EU's expansion of investments in the eco-friendly sector could provide opportunities for our secondary battery corporations that are in the process of building large factories locally," but also emphasized, "Considering that they are looking at introducing local sourcing requirements for materials and supplies along with investment incentives, special caution is required for entering companies."