On the last transaction day of 2024 (Dec. 30) and the first transaction day of 2025 (Jan. 2), the KOSPI index fluctuated below the 2400 mark as it continued to decline. This reflects the political uncertainty stemming from the impeachment situation and the burden of rising exchange rates. Nonetheless, on Jan. 3, the KOSPI index rebounded to the 2400 range, buoyed by the announcement of China's economic stimulus measures and the strength of U.S. artificial intelligence semiconductor stocks.
This week (Jan. 6-10), the stock market is expected to see individual stocks rise and fall based on issues amid concerns over Samsung Electronics' poor performance. Securities firms have drastically lowered Samsung Electronics' earnings projection for the fourth quarter of 2024 from 12.66 trillion won six months ago to 8.97 trillion won. This is due to the worsening polarization in the memory semiconductor market in the second half of last year, which led to continuously falling product prices.
Experts are paying attention to the possibility that the earnings forecasts for KOSPI-listed corporations this year will be significantly downwardly adjusted following Samsung Electronics' preliminary earnings announcement. If this outlook materializes, there are concerns that the inflow of foreign investment funds may be restricted for the time being. With expectations that general semiconductor prices will continue to fall, Samsung Electronics' annual earnings forecast for 2025 has dropped nearly 30% in three months.
Meanwhile, from Jan. 7 (local time), the world's largest consumer electronics and IT convention, CES, will be held in the United States for four days, potentially serving as a driving force for technology stocks such as artificial intelligence (AI) and robotics. This year's CES theme is "Dive in," embodying the idea that AI can help solve problems faced by humanity. A record number of over 1,000 domestic corporations will participate in this CES.
Since CES is an event that draws global attention, there is analysis suggesting it could also impact the stock market. Expectations around industries and stocks highlighted at CES, along with a potential recovery in the preference for risk assets, are noted.
Na Jeong-hwan, a researcher at NH Investment & Securities, noted, "New technologies or products incorporating AI are expected to be introduced," and added, "Last week, stocks related to AI-applied digital healthcare and robotics showed strength, indicating a potential for short-term stock price increases."
Additionally, this week, U.S. employment indicators will be released one after another. The ISM services index for December, which is to be published on Jan. 8, is forecasted to improve to 53.0 from the previous 52.1. Investors are focused on whether this will reaffirm the strength of the U.S. economy.
On Jan. 10, the U.S. employment report for December will be released. The market anticipates that new claims for unemployment benefits will slightly increase compared to November, and the unemployment rate is expected to rise to 4.252%, up from 4.246% in November. Hourly average wages are projected to increase by 4.0% compared to last year, while non-farm employment is expected to decrease by 153,000 jobs.
On Jan. 9, the minutes from last December's Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will be published. If uncertainties regarding monetary policy are alleviated and anxiety over delays in interest rate cuts dissipates, it could positively influence the stock market. The U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) reduced the benchmark interest rate by 0.25 percentage points last month to a range of 4.25% to 4.5%.
Lee Kyung-min, a researcher at Daishin Securities, remarked, "The KOSPI index at the 2400 level may indicate a deep value zone where most of the anxiety factors, such as political instability and semiconductor performance concerns, have already been reflected," and recommended increasing investment in sectors that are undervalued relative to earnings and have significant declines, such as semiconductors, automobiles, machinery, secondary batteries, and Chinese consumer stocks.