As the earnings announcement season for the fourth quarter of last year approaches, the performance of listed companies has shown a decline of about 16.5% compared to three months ago. Investors are concerned that investment sentiment regarding the domestic stock market may decrease once again.
According to financial information provider Yonhap Infomax on the 5th, as of the 3rd, the consensus (average market estimate) for the operating profit of Samsung Electronics in the fourth quarter of last year is estimated to be 8.4751 trillion won.
This represents a threefold increase compared to 2.8247 trillion won recorded during the same period the previous year, but the fact that expectations are more than 30% lower than six months ago is heightening investors' concerns.
Especially with the preliminary earnings announcement scheduled for the 8th, the consensus downgrades have exceeded 7% over the past week, leading to a significant deterioration in investor sentiment regarding earnings forecasts and target stock prices.
Even if we broaden the scope to the entire KOSPI, the mood remains similar. As of the 3rd, the total operating profit of 110 KOSPI-listed companies for which more than three securities firms provided estimates is 39.6531 trillion won.
Although this is double the combined operating profit of 19.7942 trillion won for the fourth quarter of 2023, narrowing the comparison group to 87 items shows that operating profit has decreased by about 16.5% compared to three months ago.
However, as downward adjustments in earnings have been made for a considerable period, and with the adjustment range stabilizing and differentiation by industry occurring, the market's sensitivity to earnings may be somewhat reduced.
December exports performed better than expected, and the downward revisions in profit estimates are concentrated in the semiconductor industry, while sectors such as energy, utilities, shipbuilding, securities, and healthcare are seeing slight upward adjustments.
Choi Jae-won, a researcher at Kiwoom Securities, noted, "As the adjustments in expectations for the semiconductor industry continue into the end of the year and the beginning of the year, the profit outlook for the domestic stock market remains under significant downward pressure," adding, "However, the significant downward impact in the semiconductor industry, which is a super-large market segment, and the positive signals of operational rebounds being detected in other sectors are encouraging."