The virtual asset industry has been buzzing about quantum computers. Recently, as Google announced the development status of its new quantum computer, the prices of major virtual currencies, including Bitcoin, dropped by about 5 to 10%. Virtual currency investors are curious whether the advancing quantum computers will render the blockchain technology that underpins virtual assets obsolete.
According to CoinMarketCap, a global virtual asset market site, as of 3 p.m. on the 14th, Bitcoin is trading at $100,817, up 1.99% from the previous day. At the same time, Ethereum is up 5.06% at $3,953, and Ripple is up 1.24% at $2.41. On the 10th, Bitcoin was fluctuating below $100,000 before it plummeted to around $94,000. This is nearly a 10% drop compared to its all-time high of $103,900. On the 10th, other major altcoins also saw increased declines, with Ethereum dropping 7.6% and Ripple falling by 19.71%.
◇ Quantum computers can break encryption with rapid computation speed
Quantum computers were cited as one reason for the decline in the virtual asset market that day. On the 9th, Google drew global attention by announcing its quantum computer equipped with its new quantum chip "Willow." Google released research results showing that Willow solved a problem that would take traditional supercomputers 10 septillion years in just five minutes. Consequently, the stock price of Alphabet, Google's parent company, jumped over 5% in a short period in the U.S. stock market.
Quantum computers have long been regarded as a significant threat or adversary in the virtual asset industry. The foundation of virtual currencies is the blockchain technology that distributes and shares information across a network of all participants, rather than a central server. Because information is distributed across numerous networks, including personal PCs, blockchain technology has been touted for its strength in being resistant to tampering and hacking.
However, the distinctive feature of quantum computers is their revolutionary computation speed. It is explained that utilizing quantum computers can bypass the encryption system of blockchains. Unlike traditional computers, quantum computers leverage quantum mechanical principles in how they process data. While general computers process and store information in bits as 0s and 1s, quantum computers process and store information in qubits, which can simultaneously hold both 0 and 1 states.
Thus, their computation capabilities increase exponentially as they can consider and calculate more possibilities simultaneously compared to classical computers. This characteristic makes quantum computing especially notable in the field of cryptographic decryption, where several result values can be sequentially inputted to solve problems. The performance of quantum computers is determined by the number of qubits used, and Willow utilizes 105 qubits, placing it at the second stage of Google's six-stage quantum computer roadmap. The more qubits used, the better the performance of the quantum computer.
◇ "We're far from realization, and we are also equipped with defensive measures"
However, experts do not seem to agree that quantum computers will incapacitate blockchains. Primarily, quantum computers are not yet fully developed for practical use, and it is noted that it will take several more years for new technology to emerge and be commercialized. For instance, although the foundational technology behind ChatGPT was completed much earlier, it took nearly five years to commercialize.
Especially, to truly incapacitate the encryption technology of blockchains, a sophisticated quantum computer using at least one million qubits would be needed. The recently announced Willow currently uses only 105 qubits, and according to Google's development roadmap, it will only reach the capability of using one million qubits in the final development stage, which is the sixth stage.
The situation with other corporations developing quantum computers is similar. IBM's quantum computer, "Condor," uses 1,021 qubits, while a quantum computer that Microsoft announced last month also utilizes 24 qubits. Furthermore, they have not fully resolved the quantum error challenge that inevitably arises with the use of quantum computers. This suggests there is still a long way to go before developing a quantum computer that can utilize one million qubits.
In addition, the blockchain industry has long been preparing against quantum computers that could threaten blockchain. The American cryptographic community has been researching "quantum-resistant encryption" and has already created alternative encryption standards to counteract quantum computers. Kim Seung-ju, a professor at Korea University, explained, "Just as Ethereum transitioned from the old proof-of-work (PoW) consensus algorithm to proof-of-stake (PoS), the blockchain ecosystem has been consistently preparing defenses against quantum technology and will transition to a defensive system."
Lee Hyun-woo, co-CEO of Jenggle, said, "Although it may appear threatening to the mainnet security system, it will take time for quantum computers to reach a level where they can break crypto encryption, and before that, the impact on the industry will be limited since it can be mitigated through hard forks that reflect quantum-resistant cryptographic systems."
Kim Gap-rae, senior researcher at the Korea Capital Market Institute, stated, "Claiming that quantum computers will incapacitate blockchains at this point is akin to saying a Terminator will appear in the future." He added, "As quantum computers evolve, the existing industry will also prepare to adapt to changing technologies, and virtual currencies, including Bitcoin, will necessarily pay more attention to security systems as they are incorporated into the institutional framework."