After the martial law situation on Dec. 3, individual investors who had poured sell orders into the domestic stock market are turning into buyers, as both the KOSPI and KOSDAQ indices showed upward trends in early trading on the 11th. However, with the announcement of the U.S. November Consumer Price Index (CPI) approaching that night, caution is expected to persist.
The KOSPI index stood at 2419.94 at 9:10 a.m. on the 11th, up 2.1 points (0.09%) from the previous day. Individuals were net buyers of 92 billion won in the KOSPI market, driving the index higher. Institutions and foreigners were net sellers of 49.9 billion won and 43.3 billion won, respectively.
At the same time, the KOSDAQ index recorded an increase of 9.54 points (1.44%) to 671.13. In the KOSDAQ market, individuals are also net buyers of 29 billion won, while institutions and foreigners are net sellers of 19.8 billion won and 10.5 billion won, respectively.
Individuals are showing different movements from the previous trend of selling under political uncertainty. Foreigners continue their net selling trend, but there are opinions that both spot and futures should be considered.
Labor Gil, a research institute representative at Shinhan Investment Corp., noted, 'When considering the futures market, the outflow of foreigners from the domestic stock market has somewhat quieted down,' adding, 'The price-to-book ratio (PBR = market capitalization ÷ net worth) of the KOSPI market fell to around 0.8 times on the 9th, which was the lowest point in recent years and is the most critical variable.' He further stated, 'Unless it escalates into a liquidity crisis, it is close to historic lows,' and referred to it as a 'factor for bargain hunting.'
Among the top market capitalization stocks in the KOSPI market, Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix are both in a downward trend. The decline in prices of general-purpose memory semiconductors is interpreted as a burden on their stock prices. LG Energy Solution, Celltrion, and NAVER, among others, are on the rise.
In the KOSDAQ market, Ecopro BM, Ecopro, Riga Chem Bio, Hugel, and Nchem are strong. The leading stock, Alteogen, along with HLB, is being traded at lower prices than the previous day.
The U.S. November CPI will be announced that night. This is a price index released ahead of the U.S. Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting scheduled for the 18th. The market estimates that the comprehensive CPI for November has risen by 3.3% compared to the same period last year. This indicates that the inflation rate is expected to decelerate compared to the October comprehensive CPI increase of 3.2%.
Han Ji-young, a research institute representative at Kiwoom Securities, noted, 'However, it is important to watch that the outlook for 'No Landing' in the U.S.—where the economy maintains prosperity for an extended period—could weaken over time due to reduced consumer capacity and employment trends.' He also mentioned, 'There is little possibility that the outlook for an interest rate cut by the U.S. Federal Reserve will be undermined due to the surge in inflation.'
According to the FedWatch tool from the Chicago Mercantile Exchange Group, current participants in the U.S. futures market are reflecting an 85.8% probability that the benchmark interest rate will be reduced by 0.25 percentage points at the regular FOMC meeting in December.