The era of roboptaxi (Robotaxi·autonomous taxi) that combines autonomous vehicles and taxi services is approaching. As Waymo, a subsidiary of Google's U.S. company, leads the roboptaxi market, local electric vehicle company Tesla has noted that it has "almost reached" the stage where its roboptaxi service can operate safely, increasing expectations. In particular, as Baidu's roboptaxi service, "Apollo Go," is accelerating its global expansion beyond its home country, competition among corporations to dominate the roboptaxi market is intensifying. 이동준, head of the Future Mobility Technology Center at Seoul National University (professor at the Department of Mechanical Engineering), said he expects that roboptaxi services will become fully operational domestically within the next 2 to 3 years. He predicts that it will be possible for us to use roboptaxis in our daily lives without any discomfort within a decade. The following is a Q&A.
<b>When do you see the popularization of roboptaxi in Korea?</b>
"I believe that the popularization of roboptaxi services will begin within the next 2 to 3 years, primarily in the metropolitan area. In the U.S. and China, roboptaxi services have already been fully launched. With rapidly stabilizing technology and price competitiveness that allows for affordable distribution of roboptaxi, the penetration of overseas roboptaxi corporations into the domestic market may accelerate."
<b>How does the technology level of roboptaxi in our country compare to that of the U.S. and China?</b>
"Roboptaxis are different from the autonomous driving buses that several local governments are currently operating. Buses have clear boarding and alighting stops, making them relatively easier to develop, while roboptaxis must fundamentally allow passengers to get on and off anywhere. Currently, the domestic roboptaxi technology can operate in limited areas, but it is difficult on regular roads. There is a significant technological gap with the U.S. and China. The biggest difference is that U.S. companies like Waymo and Tesla, as well as Baidu in China, have adopted highly sophisticated autonomous driving methods based on artificial intelligence (AI), enabling them to respond well to complex situations and improve accuracy and safety over time, whereas our country is still stuck in traditional methods that involve coding for possible road conditions and situations during driving. If the current situation continues, the technology gap in roboptaxi could widen further in the future."
<b>What do you think is the reason for the lag in our country's roboptaxi technology?</b>
"There are no big tech corporations like Google, Tesla, or Baidu actively developing new technologies. Development with government support has its limitations in several aspects. Ultimately, corporations with financial strength need to make proactive investments in technological development, but in our country, due to technological uncertainties along with regulatory social risks and accident-related concerns, corporations are unable to make active investments. While hardware performance that is visible is important for roboptaxis, how swiftly and safely they recognize and respond to sudden situations during operation is even more important, indicating the need for competitive software technology. I believe that the reason our country is lagging in the roboptaxi technology competition is largely due to the lack of competitiveness in the software field."
<b>There are concerns that the domestic production rate of key components like semiconductors and sensors needed for autonomous driving is low.</b>
"Google Waymo does not produce all sensors 100% in-house. Some specific components are sourced from China. Of course, vision sensors and semiconductors are also very important. However, I believe that the more critical aspect at this point is the competitiveness of AI software and algorithms. We tend to focus on the domestic production rate of components while neglecting the software and algorithm production rates, which could be more significant."
<b>What do you think is needed for the popularization of roboptaxi?</b>
"We need to provide many citizens with opportunities to experience roboptaxis. Once roboptaxi services commence, service prices will drop, leading to rapid popularization. As word spreads among those who use roboptaxis at affordable prices, the popularization of roboptaxis can accelerate. Of course, in very exceptional situations, accidents may occur, but as autonomous driving technology advances, these outlier issues will gradually be resolved. If roboptaxis become popular, there might be a perception that roboptaxis are safer than traditional taxis."
<b>Are roboptaxis safer than traditional taxis?</b>
"I believe that roboptaxis will be at least as safe and reliable as human drivers. Just as the emergency automatic braking system (AEBS) that is now mandatory in new cars lowers the risk of accidents, roboptaxis are expected to surpass humans in terms of safety at some point. Most importantly, roboptaxis can replace drivers in remote or high-risk areas where transport services are hard to access. In Japan, which has entered a super-aged society, many local governments are already actively trying various services, including autonomous driving buses. I believe that roboptaxis can be a good solution to address population decline and rural extinction in our country."
<b>What impact will roboptaxis have on traditional transportation services, such as taxis?</b>
"In the short term, roboptaxis may impact the taxi industry and taxi drivers. The service of simply picking up passengers from one location to another can be sufficiently replaced by roboptaxis. However, from a long-term perspective, roboptaxis could bifurcate traditional transportation services. Currently, roboptaxis are set to replace regular taxi services, while premium services such as limousine services continue to be provided by human drivers. I believe that the popularization of roboptaxis is an unstoppable trend for society as a whole."
<b>How will roboptaxis change our lives?</b>
"Mobility is an extremely important element for humans. Being unable to move due to aging or physical discomfort, or living in rural areas without access to transportation services, is very unfortunate and unfair. It's a crucial issue that can significantly change our lives. Roboptaxis are linked to car sharing and smart cities. They can bring substantial changes to our urban environment. Parking lots will disappear, and the concept of personal vehicles will fade. I expect roboptaxis will positively transform our lives."
Plus Point
Uber drivers in the U.S. protest, saying that the advent of roboptaxis has reduced their earnings.
As Google's Waymo plans to launch paid services in August 2024, Uber (including Lyft) drivers operating in Phoenix and Los Angeles have protested that their earnings have decreased due to roboptaxi services. U.S. online economic media Business Insider reported, "Just as Uber's debut caused existing taxi drivers' income to drop by about 10%, Uber drivers claim that their earnings have similarly decreased with the emergence of roboptaxis," and stated, "Waymo is ignoring the impact of roboptaxis on Uber drivers." With the places where roboptaxis can operate being limited, Uber drivers currently do not feel a serious sense of crisis, according to Business Insider's analysis. However, "Uber drivers are aware that roboptaxis may replace them at some point," Business Insider added. Jason, an Uber driver in Phoenix, told Business Insider, "Some passengers feel that roboptaxis are safer than human drivers," adding, "However, I am fundamentally against roboptaxis without drivers, as it affects my earnings."