Amid growing concerns over the United States government's tariff imposition and political uncertainty, expectations are emerging that the performance of listed companies will improve in the first quarter of this year, leading to a rebound in the stock market.
According to financial information provider FnGuide, as of the 28th of this month, the consensus operating profit estimate (average forecast from the securities sector) for 100 listed companies, including those in the securities market and KOSDAQ, is projected to be 37.7276 trillion won. This figure is 21.9% higher compared to the same period last year (30.9321 trillion won).
Though this is a downward revision of 13.4% from the expected figure three months ago (43.5757 trillion won), it is approximately 1.6% higher than last month (37.1427 trillion won). An analyst from Mirae Asset Securities noted, “While the revenue growth rate itself may not be high, it is expected that improvements in operating profit margins will occur as inflation, exchange rates, and interest rates move favorably for corporations.”
Among the stocks, Celltrion's operating profit is expected to surge from 15.4 billion won in the first quarter of last year to 249.7 billion won in the first quarter of this year, representing a 1517.2% increase. Companies such as HD Hyundai Heavy Industries (1127.1%), Hanwha Aerospace (1065.9%), and Park Systems (1060.6%) are also estimated to have more than ten times their operating profit compared to the same period last year.
In the case of LG Energy Solution, it is expected to switch from an operating loss of 31.6 billion won to a profit of 34.9 billion won. HD Hyundai Mipo (-11 billion won to 44.5 billion won), Wonik IPS (-26.7 billion won to 4.3 billion won), and others are also expected to escape losses.
SK hynix, Korea's leading semiconductor company, is expected to see its operating profit increase by 125.3% from 28.860 trillion won in the first quarter of last year to 65.022 trillion won in the first quarter of this year, while Samsung Electronics's profit is expected to decrease from 66.060 trillion won to 51.918 trillion won, a decrease of 21.4%.
Stocks with significant declines in operating profit include POSCO FUTURE M (-98.0%), Ecopro BM (-95.8%), NEXTIN (-77.1%), NEOWIZ (-55.0%), NCSOFT (-50.6%), and LG Innotek (-41.4%). Companies expected to turn to losses include Samsung SDI (22.07 billion won to -32.87 billion won) and Hotel Shilla (1.21 billion won to -0.28 billion won).
Yang Hae-jeong, an analyst at DS Investment & Securities, said, “While exports were weak in January and February, signs of a recovery in exports have appeared in March, and the reaction to the U.S. priority policy is also prompting stimulus in the economies of China and Europe, which is a positive change.”
Lee Jeong-bin, an analyst at Shinhan Investment & Securities, stated, “This is a point where performance weaknesses are passing and the direction of future profits is coming into focus,” adding, “As profit momentum between sectors diverges more sharply, selective responses are necessary.”