iM Securities evaluated on the 3rd that the content of the reciprocal tariffs announced by U.S. President Donald Trump is the worst-case scenario the market had feared. The Trump administration decided to impose additional tariff rates on a universal tariff rate of 10%, including 25% on Korea, 34% on China, 24% on Japan, 32% on Taiwan, and 46% on Vietnam.
Park Sang-hyun, a Research Institute at iM Securities, noted, "It's hard to deny that we are nearing the worst level of reciprocal tariff rates," and said, "In the short term, the likelihood of a shock to the financial markets has increased, and I consider it a variable that could heighten the risk of a slowdown in the U.S. economy and inflationary pressures."
Park noted that the level of retaliation from major countries due to the Trump administration's reciprocal tariffs will be crucial. China, which has immediately faced an additional tariff of 34%, is increasingly likely to engage in strong retaliatory measures. The European Union (EU) is also preparing countermeasures.
Park said, "A variable to watch for in the future is individual negotiations with the United States," and added, "Negotiations from major countries will intensify to lower reciprocal tariff rates, and there is a possibility that the tariff rates for some countries may slightly decrease during this process."
The burden on the domestic economy is also expected to increase. The possibility of a growth rate in the 0% range has been raised this year. Park said, "The Constitutional Court's impeachment decision remains a variable, but we cannot rule out the possibility that the exchange rate of the won against the U.S. dollar may threaten the 1500 won level again," and noted, "The risk of additional adjustments has increased, so a conservative approach is needed at this time."