Although the International Federation of Association Football (FIFA) announced that no match-fixing or suspicious betting patterns were found at the 2026 North American World Cup, an international monitoring body was confirmed to have detected seven potential irregularities during the tournament.
The British outlet The Athletic reported on the 24th (Korea time) that "an international advisory body has raised seven notifications regarding potential betting irregularities identified at the 2026 men's World Cup that should be reviewed for possible match-fixing."
The investigation was conducted by the independent international network Copenhagen Group, which operates to detect, sanction and prevent manipulation of sports matches. The Copenhagen Group carried out integrity monitoring activities across all 104 World Cup matches.
The full report has not yet been released. However, the Council of Europe summarized and announced the main conclusions.
According to officials who received the report contents, cases in which irregularities were raised during matches included the red card shown to Temba Zwane in the opening match between South Africa and Mexico.
Zwane received a red card in the 39th minute of the second half, shortly before the end of the match.
The report also included a case in which $4.8 million (about 7 billion won) was placed on the result that Spain would not beat Cape Verde on the cryptocurrency-based prediction market Polymarket. That match ended in a 0-0 draw.
In the match where Spain beat Saudi Arabia 4-0, the roughly 3 minutes 30 seconds taken by the video assistant referee (VAR) in the process of disallowing Ferran Torres' goal was also classified as an irregularity.
Prediction markets related to U.S. national team forward Paularín Balogun also became an issue. Polymarket opened a market on the 2nd asking "will Balogun play in the match against Belgium?" On the same day Balogun was sent off in the round of 32 match against Bosnia and Herzegovina.
The FIFA disciplinary committee officially confirmed three days later, on the 5th, that Balogun's suspension had been deferred, making him eligible to play against Belgium.
According to the Copenhagen Group's report, similar prediction markets were not opened for the other 14 players who were sent off in this tournament. None of those players had suspensions deferred.
The Copenhagen Group formally requested a written explanation from FIFA regarding the Balogun case.
However, FIFA maintained the conclusions of its own integrity task force. FIFA said, "Multiple independent expert groups jointly investigated. Betting monitoring reports and related materials, along with information received through reporting systems, were analyzed and shared according to procedures."
It added, "As a result, no signs of suspicious betting activity or match-fixing were identified in any match."
FIFA's integrity task force announced on the 22nd that no suspicious betting activity or match manipulation was found across the tournament.
The Copenhagen Group said that a day later it issued seven "yellow notices" during its own monitoring process. Yellow notices are issued when multiple irregular indicators are confirmed simultaneously. Unexplained odds changes, rumors spreading on social media, and information obtained from sources can serve as grounds.
The Copenhagen Group classifies monitoring stages by four colors. The normal stage is green, a slightly elevated alert stage is yellow, an elevated alert stage is orange, and the highest alert stage is red.
However, a yellow notice does not immediately mean match-fixing.
Gambling industry expert Christian Kalb said, "The irregularities the Copenhagen Group detected can be explained by abnormal-looking behavior such as odds changes or risk-averse transactions. There are many reasons other than manipulation."
He added, "The biggest concern is the possibility of a conflict of interest or insider information being involved," noting, "Unusual movements can be detected in prediction markets, but because they can be used for risk diversification, they must be approached very cautiously."
For example, if excessive bets are placed on a strong team's victory, a small betting firm may place funds on the opposite outcome in prediction markets to reduce loss risk.
The Copenhagen Group estimated that a total of $240 billion (about 351 trillion won) was wagered on this World Cup. That amount is about twice that of the 2022 Qatar World Cup.
Fifteen matches during the tournament were designated for special monitoring. In particular, final group stage matches were under concentrated surveillance, and 12 major controversies related to integrity risks were analyzed separately.
Kalb said, "The scale of betting on the World Cup is so large that it is very difficult to draw specific conclusions based on it. Hundreds of millions of pounds move in funds for each match."
For the first time at this tournament, the Copenhagen Group continuously monitored prediction markets such as Polymarket and Kalshi. Kalshi is an official partner of FIFA.
These prediction markets have different regulations depending on jurisdiction, and the regulatory environment is also changing rapidly.
The Copenhagen Group said, "Prediction markets cause unprecedented problems. They allow near-anonymous betting on a wide variety of events, and payment methods that are difficult to trace are also used. This is the first time they have been monitored at an international tournament."
FIFA said there were no signs of match-fixing. Meanwhile, the Copenhagen Group, which conducted monitoring activities alongside FIFA, presented seven irregularities that require explanation.
The investigation results alone cannot conclusively determine match manipulation at World Cup matches. However, questions remain that FIFA must further explain, including the case in which a prediction market was opened about a player's potential participation before the announcement of Balogun's suspension deferral.
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