The China national football team is nurturing hopes of advancing to the 2026 FIFA North and Central America World Cup, but the reality is that the hurdles remain high.
China's 'NetEase' reported on the 18th (Korea time) that "the probability of China's World Cup qualification failure is 70.7%," indicating that the Chinese football team cannot be optimistic about qualifying for the finals. In contrast, according to the same analysis, the probability of the South Korea national team's qualification for the World Cup finals is 99.2%, effectively confirming their advancement.
While the South Korea national team continues an unbeaten streak in the third round of qualifiers with 14 points (4 wins, 2 draws), the China national team is at the bottom of Group C (6 points). Given that the point gap with second-place Australia (7 points) is only 1 point, there is a scenario where they could still aim for qualification based on the results of remaining matches. Even if they don't finish in second place in the group, finishing in third or fourth would still keep their hopes alive for playoff qualification.
China will play its seventh match in Group C against Saudi Arabia on the 21st and face Australia at home in the eighth match on the 25th. They need to secure as many points as possible in the remaining matches, but realistically, it will be difficult.
The Chinese media 'Sohu' reported that "the analysis by a professional organization shows that China's chances of surviving in Group C are 29%, and the probability of direct qualification for the finals is only 2%." This means that while there is a possibility for China to advance to the playoffs, direct qualification for the finals is virtually impossible.
The China national team has not given up hope. With the key midfielder Muhammad Kanno (Al Hilal) of the Saudi national team likely to miss due to injury, China is fostering expectations of securing points in the away match against Saudi Arabia.
Sohu reported, "Kanno may miss the match against China due to a thigh injury," noting that "his absence would be a significant blow to Saudi Arabia's strength." Kanno plays a key role in regulating Saudi's midfield and transitioning between defense and offense, so his absence could work in China's favor.
Currently, the China national team is mobilizing all resources to ensure World Cup qualification. Head coach Branko Ivanković has boldly excluded veteran players and made substantial selections of young players. Additionally, the team has relocated early to the Middle East for local adaptation training, thoroughly preparing for the matches against Saudi Arabia and Australia.
Considering that Chinese football has not reached the finals since the 2002 Korea-Japan World Cup, there is a high likelihood that it will be another challenging endeavor this time. While the number of tickets allocated to Asia for the 2026 World Cup has increased to 8.5, raising China's chances of qualifying for the finals, the current group stage results suggest that optimism is difficult.
NetEase evaluated that "Chinese football still lacks competitiveness compared to strong Asian teams such as South Korea, Japan, Iran, and Saudi Arabia. The probability of falling out in the group stage is still over 70%." Chinese football fans had hoped this time could lead to qualifications, but the reality seems to remain a tall order.
[OSEN]