Last month, wildfires in North Gyeongsang, South Gyeongsang, and Ulsan resulted in 30 deaths and significant damage. The number of dwellings destroyed by the fires reached over 3,700, and more than 3,300 people were displaced. The scale of the wildfires, as well as the serious damage caused, led to them being dubbed "monster wildfires."
Research results suggest that not only are wildfires continuing to increase in South Korea, but their occurrence may also be arriving earlier. A research team led by Professor Lim Sang-jun from Seoul National University’s College of Agricultural Life Sciences published their analysis of wildfires occurring domestically over the past 30 years in the international journal "Natural Hazards" last month. Although published before this recent wildfire, the findings in the paper reflected the characteristics of the North Gyeongsang wildfire.
◇The peak wildfire season has shifted to mid-March
The research team analyzed wildfire occurrence statistics from 1991 to 2020. They compared the periods from 1991 to 2005 and from 2006 to 2020 to analyze recent trends.
An average of 451 wildfires was recorded annually over the last 30 years. The number of wildfires is on a continual upward trend. The research team stated that the occurrence of wildfires has been increasing by an average of 5.82 incidents per year. Wildfires were concentrated in April and May. Some 80.7% of the total wildfire damage occurred from fires in April and May.
The research team explained, "In South Korea, 63.2% of the total land area is covered by forestry, which is the fourth highest level among Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) countries." They added that as national-level forest restoration plans have successfully advanced afforestation projects, the thickness of the leaf litter increased, leading to a higher risk of wildfires.
In particular, the initiation period of the peak wildfire season has shifted from April to March. The research team analyzed that "due to rising temperatures and decreased precipitation from climate change, the droughts in winter and spring have lengthened, causing the peak wildfire period to arrive about 10 days earlier" and that "the start of the peak wildfire season has now moved from early April to mid-March." The duration of wildfire occurrences also increased from 145 days between 1991 and 2005 to 169 days from 2006 to 2020.
International experts have also shared similar views. Dr. Douglas Kelly from the United Kingdom Centre for Ecology & Hydrology stated to the Science Media Centre, "Wildfires occurring in South Korea are primarily caused by climate change, such as rising temperatures and unpredictable droughts." He noted that in the regions where the recent wildfires occurred, winter droughts are expected to become more frequent and temperatures to rise.
Dr. Zachary Campbell-Lockrie from the University of Edinburgh also remarked, "South Korea is one of the regions where wildfires most frequently occur in March and April," adding that "high temperatures, low humidity, dry vegetation conditions, and strong winds combine to create uncontrollable wildfires."
◇The implementation of a five-day workweek has led to an increase in wildfires... "Human impact"
The recent wildfire in North Gyeongsang was started by humans. Police reported that a perpetrator, A (56), was booked without detention on charges of violating the Forest Protection Act on the 30th of last month. A is said to have attempted to ignite a branch in a burial mound with a lighter, causing embers to fly and start the wildfire.
The research team revealed that human errors account for approximately half, or 49%, of all wildfires. Many wildfires are caused by discarded cigarette butts or by burning agricultural crops or garbage.
Analyses have shown that the implementation of a five-day workweek has led to an increase in wildfires as more people engage in outdoor activities on weekends. The research team noted that the proportion of wildfires occurring on weekends rose from 35% between 1991 and 2005 to 36.6% from 2006 to 2020. They explained that the five-day workweek, implemented since 2004, has influenced the rise in weekend wildfire occurrences.
Conversely, fewer wildfires occurred on Arbor Day, which is no longer a public holiday as of April 5. The number of wildfires on Arbor Day decreased from 331 between 1991 and 2005 to 78 from 2006 to 2020. Arbor Day was removed from the list of public holidays in 2006.
The research team stated, "While wildfires in Europe or the United States are largely influenced by climatic factors, human activity is the main cause of wildfires in South Korea," adding, "This is also why many wildfires begin in areas close to urban regions."
◇Wildfire occurrence areas have become longer and narrower
There have been changes in areas where wildfires predominantly occur. Compared to the period from 1991 to 2005, the research team found that the areas where wildfires frequently occur from 2006 to 2020 have become longer and narrower.
Wildfires primarily occur in areas stretching from North Gyeongsang Province to southern Gangwon Province. The research team analyzed that this area has lengthened north-south by 16 kilometers from 1991 to 2005, but narrow east-west by 76 kilometers during the same period.
In the past, the region extending into Chungcheong Province was also included in the main areas for wildfire occurrences, but now wildfires have concentrated in a long oval section from North Gyeongsang Province to southern Gangwon Province. The recent wildfires that occurred and spread were also in the North Gyeongsang area.
The research team indicated that "41.1% of wildfires over the past 30 years occurred in Gangwon Province, while 32.8% occurred in North Gyeongsang Province," noting that "this region is mountainous and difficult to control during fires, and the isolated pine leaf litter is highly flammable; fires spread rapidly due to tree resin."
References
Natural Hazards (2025), DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-025-07169-4
Science Media Centre (2025), https://www.sciencemediacentre.org/expert-reaction-to-the-wildfires-in-south-korea/