A bill amending the Health Care Basic Law, which centers on reviewing the number of doctors needed domestically by the government’s Health Care Workforce Supply and Demand Forecasting Committee, passed the National Assembly's health and welfare committee on the 18th. The committee will review from the 2027 academic year's medical school quota.
The National Assembly's welfare committee held a plenary session that morning and presented a bill amending the Health Care Basic Law, which contains the basis for the establishment of the forecasting committee. The welfare committee plans to bring the amendment to the National Assembly plenary session as early as the 20th and pass it within the month. The amendment will take effect immediately upon promulgation.
The amendment calls for the establishment of the forecasting committee, which calculates the supply of health care personnel, such as doctors and nurses. It is designated as an independent deliberative body under the Minister of Health and Welfare, with commissioners to be no more than 15, of which a majority, 8, will be recommended by providers such as the Korean Medical Association and the Korean Hospital Association.
The forecasting committee is expected to start reviewing from the 2027 academic year's medical school quota. For next year's medical school quota, a special clause was included in last month’s welfare committee subcommittee on legislation that allows each university president to autonomously decide on the number of students to recruit within the scope agreed upon by the Minister of Education and the Minister of Health and Welfare by next month. However, Minister of Education Lee Ju-ho stated that the number of medical school enrollment would remain at the previous level of 3,058, leading to the removal of this clause during the plenary session.
In the meantime, organizations including the Korean Medical Association have been demanding a body to scientifically evaluate and predict the supply of medical personnel. Therefore, the forecasting committee is expected to be the key to resolving the conflict between the government and the medical community triggered by the medical school enrollment expansion policy.
However, there are concerns that the forecasting committee could exacerbate the conflict rather than resolve it. Previously, the Ministry of Health and Welfare had requested the Korean Medical Association to recommend committee commissioners since September of last year, but the association opposed participation, pointing out that the government could operate the forecasting committee unilaterally. The argument was that the committee should have 'decision-making authority' over the medical school quota, beyond merely 'deliberating' it.
At the meeting that day, there were also criticisms regarding the composition of the forecasting committee. Lawmaker Lee Ju-young of the Reform Party noted, "The issues in the Workforce Forecasting Committee are independence, transparency, and expertise," and stated, "In terms of the deliberative process, it is difficult for the medical community to trust in that independence, and there continue to be doubts about whether the committee composition can represent the medical community."
If the Korean Medical Association reacts against the government’s unilateral decision to increase medical school quotas, the conflict between the government and the medical community could flare up again. Even if the forecasting committee is launched, it is uncertain whether the medical organizations will recommend the forecasting commissioners. However, the Ministry of Health and Welfare plans to establish the forecasting committee according to schedule, even if the Korean Medical Association does not recommend the commissioners.