In the near future, people may need to consider different gifts instead of chocolate for Valentine's Day. This is because chocolate, a typical representative gift for expressing love, is increasingly becoming an expensive luxury. The cause is climate change. The production of cocoa, the raw material for chocolate, is seriously affected by climate change, leading to decreased yields and skyrocketing prices.
On the 12th (local time), the price of cocoa futures for May delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange hit $11,131 per ton. This is nearly double the price compared to the same time last year. Experts cite climate change as the key factor behind this price surge, rather than a temporary increase in demand.
Chocolate is made from cocoa beans, which are seeds from the cacao tree. The cacao tree can only be grown in specific regions within 10 degrees north or south of the equator. The optimal temperature for cacao growth is below 32 degrees Celsius. In West Africa, which produces 70% of the world's cacao supply, cacao is harvested twice: mainly from September to March, and a secondary harvest from May to August. The ripe cacao pods, which take about 5 to 6 months to mature after flowering, are harvested by hand and undergo fermentation and drying processes to create the flavor of chocolate.
However, due to climate change, the number of days in West Africa that exceed the optimal temperature for cacao growth is increasing. A study by the nonprofit research organization Climate Central investigated 44 cacao-growing regions in the world’s four largest cacao producers—Cameroon, Côte d'Ivoire, Ghana, and Nigeria—and found that in the past decade, about two-thirds of the regions experienced more than six weeks of annual unusually high temperatures, while about one-third of the regions saw increases of more than eight weeks.
Climate change has had the most significant impact on cacao-growing regions in Côte d'Ivoire and Ghana. These two regions account for more than half of the world's cacao production. In both countries, the number of days each year exceeding a daily maximum temperature of 32 degrees has increased by about 40 days in the past decade. In Cameroon and Nigeria, this has lengthened by an average of 18 days and 14 days, respectively. An increase in excessively hot days hampers photosynthesis, causing flowers to wilt and fruits to fail to develop properly.
The cacao tree requires not only stable temperatures but also adequate rainfall. It needs 1,500 to 2,000 millimeters of rain per year, with no dry season lasting more than three months. However, recent rainfall patterns have changed drastically. In July of last year, some areas of Côte d'Ivoire experienced 40% more rain than average, resulting in flooded farmland and crop damage. In December of the same year, rainfall decreased significantly, hindering photosynthesis and leading to issues with flower and cacao bean development.
Climate Central noted, 'In addition to temperature and rainfall changes, illegal mining, smuggling, and the spread of viruses are also negatively affecting cacao production, which makes it highly likely that chocolate prices will continue to rise.' They suggested that planting tall trees among cacao trees to create shade, or maintaining healthy and fertile soil to enhance moisture retention, could help, but that it would take time to see results.