An analysis found that Samsung Electronics and SK hynix, the two major semiconductor corporations, will generate about 17% of Korea's gross domestic product (GDP) value added this year. The two corporations would account for roughly one-sixth of Korea's GDP. Rosy outlooks for the Korean economy—covering growth, tax revenue, and the current account—from this year through 2028 have followed one after another, but concerns are rising because they lean heavily on semiconductor performance.
◇ "The two corporations will contribute 2.7 percentage points to Korea's growth rate this year"
Kwon Hyo-seong, an economist at Bloomberg Economics, Bloomberg's economic analysis arm, offered this analysis in a report published on the 15th titled "Windfall and dilemma from the semiconductor boom." The report estimated that this year Samsung Electronics and SK hynix could contribute 10% and 7%, respectively, to Korea's GDP value added. GDP is the sum of value added produced by all economic agents, including the government and corporations, within a country.
The report said that if this happens, the two corporations could lift Korea's GDP growth rate by about 2.7 percentage points (p). The highest private-sector growth forecast for this year is currently 3%. If 3% is realized, it would mean 90% of the growth comes from the two corporations. Kwon said, "If we factor in spillover effects on upstream and downstream industries, the overall growth contribution will be even larger," adding, "This is a concentration of economic power rarely seen globally and is comparable to Taiwan's TSMC case."
Similar analyses are emerging domestically. The Korea Development Institute (KDI) recently raised its growth forecast for Korea by 0.6 percentage points (p), from 1.9% to 2.5%. Jeong Gyu-cheol, head of KDI's economic outlook office, said, "We think the contribution from semiconductor growth will be considerably larger than half of the upward revision (0.3 percentage point)."
Earlier, the Bank of Korea announced that Korea's growth rate in the first quarter rose 1.7% from the previous quarter, explaining that "about 55% of the 1.7% growth was attributable to semiconductors."
◇ Not just growth—tax revenue and the current account surplus are also concentrated in semiconductor effects
Not only the growth rate but also tax revenue is expected to be excessively dependent on these two corporations. Bloomberg estimated that Samsung Electronics and SK hynix will pay more than 180 trillion won in corporate taxes from the second half of this year through the first half of 2028.
Forecasts from other economic analysis institutions align with this. KB Securities projected that the corporate taxes the two companies will pay will reach 100 trillion won this year and 130 trillion won next year. Overall corporate tax revenue projections are also being revised upward. Citibank predicted total corporate tax revenue will reach 121 trillion won this year and 224 trillion won next year.
The current account is also expected to post a large surplus on the back of semiconductor exports. Bloomberg estimated that, based on Samsung Electronics and SK hynix alone, Korea's current account surplus could approach $280 billion this year. That is more than double last year's surplus ($123.1 billion). KDI, in its recent economic outlook, also projected this year's current account surplus at $240 billion.
◇ Highly vulnerable to semiconductor risks… "Invest fiscal resources in structural upgrades"
The problem will arise when this semiconductor-dependent economy encounters a "semiconductor downturn." If HBM prices fall faster than expected, if investment by large cloud corporations centered on U.S. big tech slows, or if a geopolitical supply chain shock occurs, Korea's economy—underpinned by semiconductor profits—could be shaken significantly. The government's mention of invoking emergency adjustment powers amid the recent possibility of a Samsung Electronics union strike also shows the fragility of this dependency structure.
Kwon said, "How we use the fiscal space created by this semiconductor boom will determine our capacity to respond to the next downturn," adding, "If we channel resources into restructuring low-productivity institutional sectors and investing in infrastructure, technology, and talent, it will lead to structural upgrades in Korea's economy, but if it ends up as broad cash-like transfers, the effects will be short-lived and only structural vulnerabilities will remain."