Demand for Korea's long-term care services is rising sharply, and a state think tank estimated that by 2043 an additional 990,000 care workers will be needed. It suggested the government overhaul the employment permit system and visa policies to actively utilize foreign workers, who currently make up less than 1% of care workers.
Korea Development Institute (KDI) said on the 16th in its report "Outlook and policy direction for elderly care service workers" that "the supply of care workers in Korea cannot keep up with the growth in demand for long-term care services," adding, "Advanced countries that have already entered an aged society are also experiencing shortages of service workers."
According to KDI, workers aged 60 and older currently dominate the care workforce. Those 60 and older accounted for 63.1% of all care workers in 2023. Considering factors such as population decline among this group and higher educational attainment among women, the likelihood of future exits is high. The share of care workers aged 60 and older is projected to peak at 72.6% in 2043 and then gradually decline.
Assuming current labor supply and service demand persist, KDI projected that the number of service recipients per worker will rise from the current 1.5–1.9 to 1.9–2.4 in 2030 and 3–3.7 in 2040. Accordingly, the additional workforce needed is estimated to reach 332,000 in 2033, 625,000 in 2038, and 990,000 in 2043.
KDI proposed that "utilizing foreign workers is an alternative." As of 2023, there were about 6,300 foreign care workers, accounting for only 0.9% of all employed care workers.
KDI said, "To secure elderly care workers, it is more efficient to secure and deploy personnel by using visa policies currently limited to care workers," adding, "If the current employment quota standard for service sectors under the employment permit system is applied to 'care facilities,' up to 63,000 could be employed." That is about 10% of all employed care workers. It added, "Another option is to expand the eligible pool for the specific activities visa (E-7) for the care worker occupation among foreign students, which is currently being piloted."
The problem is that foreign care workers, like domestic workers, are also aging, with many 60 and older, and are concentrated mainly in the Seoul metropolitan area. The reason is the low wage level for care workers. Foreign workers are said to move from jobs in caregiving, food service, and manufacturing to relatively stable, less physically demanding long-term care jobs as they grow older.
KDI said, "Even if foreign care workers flow in, efforts to improve the quality of care jobs must continue," adding, "Otherwise, it will be impossible to ensure the continued work of foreign workers." It also said, "When applying for permanent residency after working for more than five years on a specific activities (E-7) visa, it should be considered to establish incentives to bolster local staffing by granting additional points for regional service and tenure."
KDI added that "care robots" should also be actively used. According to one survey, 89.1% of care facilities answered that "introducing care robots is necessary," but only 6.4% had actually adopted them. KDI said, "Using care robots can reduce care workers' workload by more than 50%," adding, "The expense issue must be addressed."