The ASEAN+3 Macroeconomic Research Office (AMRO) said the fallout from the "Middle East war" will push Korea's consumer price inflation to 2.3% this year. That is an increase of 0.4 percentage points from a month ago (1.9%).
According to the Ministry of Economy and Finance, AMRO on the 6th released its "2026 Regional Economic Outlook." AMRO is an international organization that reviews economic trends and offers policy recommendations for the 13 member economies, including the 10 ASEAN countries and Korea, China and Japan.
AMRO projected Korea's inflation this year at 2.3%, up 0.4 percentage points. It said the forecast reflects the recent rise in global energy prices. Next year's inflation outlook was revised up to 2.2% from the previous 2%.
However, Korea's economic growth rate for this year was kept at 1.9%, the same level as in last month's annual consultation report. AMRO said, "Rising global energy prices and the potential persistence of regional energy supply disruptions are drags on growth," but added, "Solid semiconductor demand and the government's response through a supplementary budget (chugyeong) will support growth."
AMRO and other international organizations are collectively revising up Korea's inflation outlook to reflect the impact of the Middle East war. The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) on the 26th in its "Interim Economic Outlook" raised its inflation projection for Korea to 2.7% from 1.8%. At the same time, the OECD revised down Korea's economic growth forecast to 1.7% from 2.1%.
Meanwhile, AMRO projected the ASEAN+3 region will grow 4% each in 2026 and 2027, slowing from 4.3% in 2025.