To estimate the number of births this year, it is enough to identify the number of pregnant people since May last year. That is because babies are usually born eight months after a pregnancy is confirmed. Accordingly, the government views the number of advance applicants for pregnancy and childbirth medical expenses as a "leading index" of the number of births. From May last year to January this year, the number of advance applicants for pregnancy and childbirth medical expenses rose 14% from the previous period. As a result, this year is on track to achieve a record of "three straight years of growth in the number of births." This is happening for the first time in 14 years.
◇ Pregnant registrations from May last year to January this year up 14% from a year earlier
According to the National Health Insurance Service on the 9th, the number of applicants for pregnancy and childbirth medical expenses from May last year to January this year totaled 270,231. That was up 14.1% from the same period a year earlier (236,822).
Once an "pregnancy confirmation letter" is issued at an obstetrics and gynecology clinic, one can apply to the National Health Insurance Service for pregnancy and childbirth medical expenses. Although it is rare to apply for the voucher after childbirth, most applications are made by people who have just confirmed a pregnancy.
Considering that babies are typically born eight months after a pregnancy is confirmed, trends in pregnant registrations during this period are connected to the flow of births from January to September this year. However, because there are multiple births such as twins and triplets, and cases of miscarriage, the number of pregnant people does not perfectly match the number of births.
By month, the increase in pregnant registrations is widening. Year-over-year growth rates in pregnant registrations were ▲ May last year 6.8% ▲ June 17.1% ▲ July 13.4% ▲ August 12.8% ▲ September 14.1% ▲ October 15.4% ▲ November 13.4% ▲ December 13.6% ▲ January this year 20.6%.
A government official said, "Judging by the trend in pregnant registrations, it appears likely that the rebound in births will continue this year," adding, "The total fertility rate (the number of children a woman is expected to have over her lifetime) was 0.75 in 2024, and this year it could be 0.87, with the level possibly reaching the 1.1 range in 2030."
According to the Ministry of Data and Statistics (MODS), the number of births in 2024 increased by 8,289 from a year earlier, and in 2025, even after adding December, it is expected to increase year over year. A MODS official said, "If this trend continues in 2026, the growth could continue."
◇ People born in the 1990s lead the fertility rebound… "Possibility that the fertility rate will fall again after 2031"
Analysts say the recent rise in the fertility rate stems from people born in the 1990s, a relatively large cohort, entering their childbearing years.
The government is also rolling out various policies to sustain the rebound in births. Upon registering as pregnant, a voucher for pregnancy and childbirth medical expenses of 1 million won (1.4 million won for multiple births) is provided. The post-birth voucher "first meeting benefit" provides 2 million won for a first child and 3 million won for a second child or beyond. The cap on support provided as a wage supplement to workers who reduce working hours to raise children up to the sixth grade of elementary school will also be raised.
Starting this year, eligibility for the child allowance rises from up to age 7 to up to age 8, and children living outside the greater Seoul area or in population-declining regions can receive an additional 5,000 to 20,000 won per month. A system to defer principal repayment on mortgage loan debt during parental leave will also take effect.
However, some analyses say the fertility rate could fall once the population effect of the "second echo boom generation" (born 1991–1995), which is leading the rebound, ends. In a recent report, the Korea Institute for Health and Social Affairs (KIHASA) said, "There is considerable weight to the possibility that the increase in births in 2024 is not a long-term and sustained rebound."
Among all births, those in which the mother is ages 30–34 account for half. It is therefore likely that around 2031, when those born in 1995—the youngest of the second echo boom generation—enter age 35 and move out of the core childbearing ages, the "population effect" will weaken.