Ahead of the Lunar New Year holiday, three major livestock infectious diseases—African swine fever (ASF), foot-and-mouth disease, and highly pathogenic avian influenza (AI)—have broken out simultaneously in multiple locations. With forecasts that the holiday, when homebound travel and slaughter volumes peak, will be the most critical period, the government is going all-out to strengthen quarantine and stabilize supply.
According to the Ministry of Agriculture, Food and Rural Affairs on the 8th, there have been a total of 39 cases of highly pathogenic AI nationwide this winter, and 41 detections in wild birds. Foot-and-mouth disease occurred at a cattle farm in Ganghwa, Incheon, at the end of last month. ASF has been confirmed in Gochang, North Jeolla; Boryeong, South Chungcheong; Changnyeong, South Gyeongsang; and Pocheon, Gyeonggi.
In particular, the number of ASF cases has already reached eight this year, the same level as the "annual" total last year. With confirmed cases emerging even in South Gyeongsang, which had been classified as an ASF-clean region, anxiety in the livestock sector is growing.
The problem is that this pattern is appearing right before the Lunar New Year peak season. From late January to early February is the busiest shipping period for farms, when slaughter and shipment volumes concentrate. If culling and movement restrictions continue in succession, shipment delays and the burden of keeping animals will inevitably occur at the same time.
The government has moved to block supply instability ahead of the holiday. Taking into account fewer slaughter days and potential growth in pork demand, the Agriculture Ministry decided to temporarily allow early shipments only for farms with biosecurity facilities and no issues on test results. This advances, by up to a week, the earliest shipment timing under the ASF standard operating procedures (SOP), a calibrated measure to ease supply burdens while maintaining the quarantine stance.
The government believes there will be no major problems in supply management. An official at the Agriculture Ministry said, "The number of pigs culled due to this ASF occurrence is 2,400, which is 0.02% or less of the total herd of 11,754,000," adding, "The impact on domestic pork supply is minimal, but given the approach of the Lunar New Year, we will closely monitor the situation and manage livestock product supply without gaps."
However, some in the industry voice greater concern about a downturn in consumption than supply disruptions. A livestock industry official said, "If additional outbreaks continue, a slump in holiday demand could be a bigger variable than any shortage in volumes."