With 50 days to the 6.3 presidential election, the notion of 'the ineffectiveness of primaries' is spreading within the political circles. This is because it is difficult to find a candidate who can compete equally with former Democratic Party Representative Lee Jae-myung, both within the Democratic Party and the People Power Party. There are also rumors that a so-called 'anti-Lee Jae-myung' big tent will be created next month in politics. Regardless of political ideology, individuals are preparing for a 'post-primary' rematch in order to qualify to compete against former Representative Lee Jae-myung in the main election.
◇Without Oh and Yoo in the primaries... Will there be a rematch in the 'anti-Lee Jae-myung big tent'?
Kwon Young-se, chairman of the People Power Party's emergency committee, said at a party emergency committee meeting on the 14th, "There will be no endorsement of a specific individual nor any disadvantage to anyone." Although he did not mention a name, he was effectively referring to the acting Prime Minister Han Duck-soo. Floor leader Kweon Seong-dong also noted, "It must be different from Lee Jae-myung's 'mere facade of a primary' for the one-man dictatorship party."
The notion of 'Han Duck-soo's endorsement' has spread to the party inside and out to the extent that the party leadership is publicly putting the brakes on it. The scenario is that the acting Prime Minister Han will not participate in the party primaries and instead declare an independent candidacy next month, seeking unification with the People Power Party's presidential candidate. This scenario has spread among People Power Party members who have interacted with Han. There are concerns that even if former representative Han Dong-hoon wins in the primaries, it will be difficult to gain support from the 'anti-tan (anti-impeachment faction)' in the main election.
The endorsement notion arose with the announcement of non-participation in the primaries from Seoul Mayor Oh Se-hoon and former lawmaker Yoo Seung-min, both with strong centrist leanings. Except for former representative Han Dong-hoon, only candidates closely aligned with the anti-impeachment faction or strong support groups remain. The candidate registration deadline for the primaries is on the 15th. If the acting Prime Minister Han does not express intentions to run by that day, the possibility of running as an independent candidate targeting 'a unified conservative candidate' increases. This could potentially damage democratic legitimacy. This is why the 'ineffectiveness of primaries' is already being discussed.
A senior lawmaker from the PK (Busan-Gyeongnam) region stated in a currency that "I don't know what decision Prime Minister Han will make after the party primaries, but I understand he is also contemplating running for office." He added, "We must work together as much as possible to find someone who can compete against Lee Jae-myung," and noted, "Mayor Hong Jun-pyo has experienced this, as has former representative Han Dong-hoon, but if left unchecked, Lee Jae-myung will win easily. It is necessary to align all the moderate conservatives, including those who did not participate in the primaries."
A two-term lawmaker from the TK (Daegu-Gyeongbuk) region also observed, "In the current situation, the party primaries hold little significance." He said, "As we sought ways to counter the unilateral rule of Lee Jae-myung, the 'Han Duck-soo card' naturally came to mind," adding, "If the acting Prime Minister Han runs, he would have a reason to persuade the centrists rather than Minister Kim Moon-soo and to rally members more effectively than former representative Han Dong-hoon."
Former lawmaker Yoo Seung-min, who had previously decided not to participate in the party primaries, is also reportedly considering an independent run. It may be difficult to overcome the strong party member walls of the pro-Yoon (pro-Yoon Suk-yeol) faction, but there is a notion that he could aim for a rematch from the perspective of a 'big tent for moderate conservatives' after the primaries. Since former representative Lee Jae-myung has secured rules favorable to him, it is seen as pointless to participate in the primaries.
◇Non-Lee, Democrats reviewing independent candidacy in the 'Aren't They Going to Nominate Lee?' primary
The Democratic Party is effectively following a path of endorsement. From the presidential organization to the primary rules, the principle of 'Aren't They Going to Nominate Lee?' has become clear. The Democratic Party has confirmed that "50% of member votes and 50% of public opinion polls" will be reflected. The special rules committee chair appointed by former representative Lee decided the primary rules. There were comments among the faction that "the player chose the referee."
Accordingly, about 1 million rights party members who pay Democratic Party membership fees will influence the presidential primaries. Most joined the party around the last presidential election as part of the 'Lee Jae-myung fandom.' Previously, Gyeonggi governor Kim Dong-yeon and former lawmaker Kim Du-gwan had released a statement proposing an open primary (100% public opinion polls).
Typically, primary rules are decided through prior consultations among candidates. However, it is reported that there were no communication or agreement processes to discuss the rules this time. After the Democratic Party's decision, Gyeonggi governor Kim Dong-yeon stated that he would still participate in the primaries, while former lawmaker Kim Du-gwan rejected participation.
The Democratic Party's 'Aren’t They Going to Nominate Lee?' primary is also being closely watched by conservative factions. The potential joining of former Prime Minister Kim Boo-kyum, who declared non-participation in the primaries, as well as former Prime Minister Lee Nak-yon's possible participation in the 'anti-Lee Jae-myung big tent' has also been mentioned within the People Power Party. Although former representative Lee Jae-myung remains strong, the resistance among centrists continues. Along with the risk of trial, there is a fear that he would monopolize not only legislative power but also executive and judicial powers, leading to 'Lee Jae-myung phobia.'
Amid this, the possibility of former lawmaker Kim's independent candidacy is also being discussed. Although he has decided not to participate in the Democratic Party primaries, he is seeking alternative paths such as running as an independent or in a third zone. Since the rules favorable to former representative Lee Jae-myung have been confirmed, it is considered meaningless to participate in the primaries.
Former lawmaker Kim released a statement on that day, saying, "I have no face to participate in the Democratic Party primaries, which have betrayed the spirit of Kim Dae-jung and Roh Moo-hyun," indicating his intent not to participate. He stated, "I advocated for a 'fully open primary' for an overwhelming transition of power in the Democratic Party, but the party announced 'impossible' without any explanation or discussion." However, he clarified that this does not imply his withdrawal from the presidential race. A spokesperson for former lawmaker Kim noted, "We have not yet determined specific actions, but the possibility of running as an independent candidate remains open."