On the 26th, the ruling of the second trial in the case of Lee Jae-myung, the leader of the Democratic Party, for violating the Public Official Election Act turned on a "green light" for the party's presidential ambitions. This was a complete reversal of the first trial ruling which had sentenced him to disqualification for candidacy for publicly announcing false facts during the last presidential election. As a result, the leader is expected to be largely free from the controversy over his candidacy eligibility. Since his claim that the prosecution initiated a political prosecution is also gaining traction, the Democratic Party is likely to accelerate the process of designating him as the presidential candidate.
The Seoul High Court's Criminal Division 6-2 (Directors General Choi Eun-jung, Lee Ye-seul, and Jeong Jae-o) overturned the first trial ruling, which had sentenced the leader to one year in prison with a two-year probation for having hindered voters' choices by publicly announcing false facts during the presidential election process and distorting and damaging the public will, and acquitted him.
The second trial court viewed that it was not the case that he lied by saying, regarding the preferential treatment suspicion of changing the use of the site for the Korea Food Research Institute in Baekhyeon-dong, Seongnam, during the Gyeonggi Province National Assembly inspection in October 2021, that "the Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport threatened him to change the use." Both Lee and the Democratic Party have argued that this expression was used while explaining the relocation of a public institution unrelated to the Baekhyeon-dong project and that they merely expressed the "pressure" they received from the relevant ministry as "threatening." This contradicts the first trial's judgment which found that he stated false facts regarding the Baekhyeon-dong project.
The court also concluded that his statement, made in December of the same year during a broadcast that he did not play golf while on a trip abroad in 2015 when he was the mayor of Seongnam with the late Kim Moon-ki, who was involved in the Daejang-dong development project, was also not a falsehood. Previously, the first trial court had judged that since the only people who played golf with him were Yoo Dong-kyu, the former head of the Planning Department of Seongnam Urban Development Corporation, and Kim Moon-ki, the act of playing golf together would be memorable.
◇If impeachment is upheld, Lee effectively goes straight to the finals.
This ruling is directly linked to the position of Lee, a key presidential contender from the opposition. Although a Supreme Court ruling is still pending, it is rare for the second trial's outcome to be overturned in the final judgment. As the major legal constraints that would most significantly affect the presidential run have been lifted, it effectively extinguishes the immediate fire regarding an early presidential election. Even if President Yoon Suk-yeol's impeachment trial is dismissed, it will be difficult to avoid a lame duck situation in the latter half of his term. This indicates that regardless of an early election, the political sector will soon enter a mode for the next presidential election.
According to regulations, the third trial for the Public Official Election Act case is recommended to conclude within three months after the second trial ruling, with the deadline being June 26. Although the Constitutional Court's ruling on the presidential impeachment trial is delayed, there is a prevailing expectation that it will not go beyond the second week of April. If impeachment is upheld, a presidential election must be held within 60 days of the ruling date, which means that if Yoon's impeachment is upheld, a presidential election will take place before Lee's final judgment.
Lee's 'dominance system' has become more solid. There is currently no other candidate within the opposition camp that has a large support base comparable to Lee's, especially since the judicial risks have been alleviated to some extent. Furthermore, Lee has a strong foundation within the National Assembly. During the last general election nomination process, the non-Lee faction was largely purged. As Lee escaped from the disqualification for candidacy, the space for potential candidates from the non-Lee faction has further diminished. There are already discussions within the party that conducting a primary election would be meaningless.
◇Strengthening offensive against the prosecution, visibly preparing for the presidential election.
The Democratic Party is expected to reinforce its offensive against the prosecution while also entering the full-scale preparations for an early presidential election. This is because the second trial court did not accept a substantial part of the prosecution's charges.
So far, the Democratic Party has claimed that the prosecution has engaged in "fabricated prosecutions" to suppress opposition leaders while asserting innocence. Within the party, it is anticipated that the Committee for the Realization of Justice and Measures Against Prosecutorial Dictatorship (Sajeong Special Committee) will launch an all-out offensive against the prosecution, including Prosecutor General Shim Woo-jung.
They are also speeding up the process of selecting pledges. The Minsheng Economy Council, for which Lee serves as co-chair, has already prepared a draft of presidential pledges. The National Assembly's standing committee is also reviewing the pledges. A member of the ruling party leadership stated, "We urge the Constitutional Court to promptly designate the date for the impeachment ruling of President Yoon Suk-yeol, and internally, we are preparing to seize the initiative in economic policy as soon as the presidential race begins."
Immediately after the court ruling that day, the leader told reporters, "The prosecution and this administration should have used the capabilities they employed to manipulate evidence and fabricate cases against Lee Jae-myung to prevent forest fires or improve the lives of the people," adding, "Now I hope the prosecution reflects on its actions and no longer waste national resources. Isn't it the right thing?"