Experts predict that the manufacturing economy will decline in April. It is expected that both domestic demand and exports will fall next month, leading to a shift to a downward trend for the first time in three months.
According to the 'Major Industry Expert Survey Index (PSI) Results' announced by the Korea Institute for Industrial Economics and Trade on the 23rd, the manufacturing business outlook survey index for this month was 107, but the index for April is forecasted to be 99, a decline of 8 points.
A PSI above 100 (no change from the previous month) indicates that more respondents believe the business outlook will improve compared to the previous month, while a lower PSI suggests that more expect worsening conditions.
According to the Korea Institute for Industrial Economics and Trade, this month’s manufacturing PSI is 107, exceeding 100 for the first time in five months. It has continued to rise for three consecutive months since January (88).
In terms of detailed indicators, this month’s domestic demand is at 98, still below 100, but higher than 87 in January and 96 in February. Exports (108) and production (106) have exceeded the benchmark for two consecutive months.
Inventories recorded 118, a slight decrease from last month’s 120, while investment (95) and profitability (99) have remained below 100 for four months.
By industry, the semiconductor business outlook PSI recorded 105 this month. The semiconductor PSI has shown a downward trend after hitting 156 in September last year, dropping to 56 in January before rising to 70 in February.
By industry, information and communications technology (ICT) sectors such as displays (133) and home appliances (100), as well as material sectors like chemicals (114) and steel (122), saw relatively large increases. The machinery sectors, including automobiles (108) and shipbuilding (100), also experienced an increase in the PSI compared to the previous month.
Experts anticipate that next month's manufacturing PSI will be 99, which is below the benchmark. They believe that the decline in domestic demand (91) and exports (96) will adversely affect the manufacturing economy. Production (97), investment (92), and profitability (91) also declined compared to the previous month.
By industry, semiconductors (105), displays (117), mobile phones (120), and chemicals (121) are expected to exceed the benchmark, while steel (89), automobiles (83), and home appliances (90) are anticipated to fall below it.