On the 24th, following the impeachment trial of Prime Minister Han Duck-soo, the political arena is expected to be shaken throughout this week by 'mega variables' as there are possibilities of an appeals trial for Lee Jae-myung, the leader of the Democratic Party, regarding a violation of the Public Official Election Act on the 26th, and a ruling on the impeachment of President Yoon Seok-yeol on the 28th.
Of course, legally, each issue is a separate case. However, considering that the fate of the head of state, the second-in-command of the executive branch, and the leader of the first party in the National Assembly and a prominent candidate for the next presidential election are at stake, the interests of both the government and the ruling and opposition parties, as well as public opinion, are likely to converge, leading to a 'tumultuous week.'
According to the political arena on the 23rd, the ruling on Prime Minister Han is seen as a gauge for the ruling regarding President Yoon. One of the key reasons for the impeachment of Prime Minister Han is that he allegedly conspired with, tolerated, and aided President Yoon's declaration of martial law, which is connected to the judgment of President Yoon's 'insurrection activities.'
In other words, if President Yoon's declaration of martial law was legal, then the actions of Prime Minister Han, who consented to it, would also be deemed legal. In legal circles, it has been interpreted that the Constitutional Court's scheduling of a ruling date for Prime Minister Han suggests that it has reached some level of judgment on this matter.
The ruling party is confident of dismissal. Kweon Seong-dong, the floor leader, noted after a meeting on the 21st, "If the impeachment trial of Prime Minister Han is dismissed, the Democratic Party must apologize to the public," adding, "I believe that the legislative dictatorship and paralysis, as well as state terror by the Democratic Party ultimately led to the President's declaration of martial law, and this will also be a significant consideration in the impeachment trial against the President."
The Democratic Party said, "Even if the impeachment of Prime Minister Han is dismissed, isn’t this ultimately a preliminary task by the Constitutional Court for the removal of President Yoon?" They are maintaining a calm atmosphere. However, internally, as a conclusion is expected before the timing of President Yoon's ruling, they are busy calculating the political repercussions.
At a Supreme Council meeting on the 21st, Democratic Party floor leader Park Chan-dae criticized, "Yoon Seok-yeol, who said he would prioritize this matter, hasn't even had a ruling schedule set, yet they say they will rule on Prime Minister Han first; how many citizens will find this acceptable?" Supreme Council member Kim Min-seok also pointed out, "With the designation of a ruling date for Prime Minister Han, the principles of 'first in, first out,' and the 'principle of prioritizing significant cases' that the Constitutional Court has previously articulated have been undermined."
In particular, the Democratic Party is experiencing heightened tension ahead of the ruling in the appeals case for Lee.
Lee was previously sentenced to disqualification from office (1 year in prison with a 2-year suspended sentence) in the first trial. If Lee receives a similar guilty ruling as in the first trial, it is expected that the People's Power will highlight Lee’s judicial risks and launch an all-out offensive, leading the Democratic Party to focus on preparing countermeasures. Specifically, it is anticipated they will stress that this is not a final ruling (third trial) and label it as a 'political judgment' or 'suppression of the opposition.'
Moreover, if President Yoon's impeachment is upheld and an early election is held, the impact of a guilty ruling against Lee will be magnified, heightening the possibility of discussions about 'candidate replacement.'
On the other hand, if Lee is acquitted in the appeals trial, his presidential ambitions are likely to gain momentum. If the Constitutional Court rules in favor of President Yoon's impeachment, the transition to election mode is expected to occur immediately. If the impeachment is dismissed or rejected, President Yoon will promptly return to his duties, leading to an unavoidable standoff between the ruling and opposition parties.
Meanwhile, if the Constitutional Court's ruling regarding President Yoon extends beyond this week, the uncertainty in the political arena will inevitably increase. The People's Power believes that the longer the ruling is delayed, the higher the possibility of impeachment dismissal or rejection, and they are expected to continue their offensive against the opposition's overuse of impeachment. The Democratic Party is anticipated to increase pressure on the Constitutional Court for a fair judgment.