Last year, the birth rate in South Korea saw a slight increase compared to the previous year, raising expectations that it might have hit bottom and be rebounding; however, there are also cautious responses noting that it is still too early to be optimistic. This is because South Korea's total fertility rate remains at 0.75, still the lowest in the world. Experts argued that we should not fall into the fallacy of assuming that spring has arrived just because a 'swallow has come' and should continue to expand policies to overcome low birth rates.
◇ Marriage also increased by 15%… Government says 'policy effect, continued rise in birth rate expected'
According to the Statistics Korea's '2024 Population Trends Survey Birth and Death Statistics' released on the 26th, the number of newborns last year was 238,300, an increase of 8,300 from the previous year.
The annual number of births has been decreasing for eight consecutive years, starting from 438,420 in 2015 to 406,243 in 2016, a reduction of 32,000. Starting from 2020, the number of newborns fell to the 200,000 range, and last year, it further decreased to 230,000. The average monthly number of births had begun to drop below 20,000. However, last year, the number of newborns increased compared to the previous year, indicating a rebound. This marks the first year in nine that the number of births has increased compared to the prior year.
The total fertility rate, which signifies the number of children a woman will give birth to in her lifetime, increased by 0.03 from the previous year to 0.75. This is 0.07 higher than the median estimate of the total fertility rate for 2024 (0.68) presented by Statistics Korea in its population projection report on December 14, 2023, and also 0.05 higher than the optimistic estimate (0.70) for overcoming low birth rates.
A positive indicator for overcoming low birth rates along with the rebound in the total fertility rate is the increase in the number of marriages. Marriages in 2024 increased by 14.9% compared to the previous year, which is the highest level since statistics were first compiled in 1981.
Experts believe that considering the customary practice in South Korea where childbirth typically occurs after marriage, the increase in the number of marriages is likely to lead to an increase in births. Furthermore, analyzing this year's data shows that the proportion of births occurring within two years of marriage has risen by 1.1 percentage points to 35%, indicating that more couples are having children shortly after getting married.
The government has reacted to this as a result of its measures to overcome low birth rates initiated since the beginning of the Yoon Suk-yeol administration. Yoo Hye-mi, the chief of the presidential office's low birth rate response team, held a briefing at the Yongsan Presidential Office and noted, "I believe this increase in the birth rate will not be temporary but will continue for a significant period in the future."
The government has prioritized addressing low birth rates as a key national agenda. In 2023, it introduced parental allowance, and in 2024, it established a 6+6 parental leave system and special housing supply for families with newborns.
Lee Chan-young, a professor at Jeonnam National University, stated that he believes the continuous increase in marriages following the COVID-19 pandemic led to the rise in the number of births last year, adding that he sees the rapid increase in marriage numbers in 2024 as a positive factor for future increases in the number of births.
He further stated, "I view positively the growing awareness that the issue of childbirth extends beyond individual concerns to questions of societal and national sustainability, which is drawing more attention toward childbirth on a broader societal level."
◇ Some point out 'it's just a technical rebound'… Policies to enhance birth rates must continue
While the rebound in birth rates is welcome news, there are cautious viewpoints suggesting that it is still too early to celebrate. This is due to the absolute level of the birth rate still being the lowest in the world.
According to the 'Society at a Glance' report released last year by the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), South Korea was the only OECD member country with a total fertility rate below 1.0. Spain, which has the second-lowest birth rate, has a total fertility rate of 1.16.
In this year's statistics, the rising age of women giving birth to their first child continues to be highlighted as a critical issue. The average age of mothers who gave birth to their first child last year was 33.1 years, an increase of 0.1 years from the previous year. The average childbirth age has also risen to 33.7 years, which is again a 0.1-year increase.
With advances in medicine helping address infertility issues, older maternal age is increasing; however, as the age of birthing is delayed, the likelihood of giving up on having a second child or more inevitably increases. To resolve this, experts suggest designing policies that could accelerate the marriage timing for males and females of marriageable age.
Jeon Young-soo, a professor at Hanyang University's Graduate School of International Studies, commented, "Although recently we have seen a positive indicator, it seems necessary to conduct a sober assessment of whether the low birth rate issue is truly improving," adding that the increase in marriages, which is a precursor to births, may simply reflect a technical effect resulting from the end of the COVID-19 pandemic.
Professor Jeon further remarked, "There is no statistical evidence showing that the macroeconomic environment for marriage and childbirth, particularly in terms of employment and housing, has improved. This could merely be a technical rebound occurring under conditions where fundamentals have not improved," warning that it is premature to pop champagne over these positive statistics.
He continued, "The number of marriages, which is a precursor indicator, increased from 190,000 to 220,000, a rise of 30,000; however, the (total) fertility rate only increased by 0.03 and the number of births by only 8,300, so it is important to develop housing and employment policies for the youth generation for a long-term and structural rise in the birth rate."
Professor Lee Chan-young expressed concern that this year's economic uncertainty and sluggish market conditions may impact future birth rates, stating, "As the number of births has slightly shifted to an increase, it is necessary to design policies that can capture the current rebound momentum and continue this trend."
Professor Lee Cheol-hee from Seoul National University noted, "The increase in the total fertility rate is so minimal that it's hard to say we've succeeded in rebounding. It is not a matter to get overly excited about merely because of this phenomenon," insisting that a cold analysis is necessary to understand what factors have contributed to the rise in birth rates. Depending on the analysis, policies that need to be strengthened and those that can be relaxed can be determined.