This year, the high-bandwidth memory (HBM) market is expected to grow by 66.9% compared to the previous year. Although the pace of demand increase is anticipated to slow compared to the rapid growth of the artificial intelligence (AI) market over the past two years, supply shortages are expected to persist.
Gaurav Gupta, vice president of Gartner, said on the 19th at the 'Semicon Korea 2025' event held at COEX in Gangnam, Seoul. The largest semiconductor exhibition in Korea, 'Semicon Korea 2025,' will be held at COEX in Samsung-dong, Seoul, from the 19th to the 21st. A record 500 semiconductor materials, components, and equipment corporations are expected to participate, setting up 2,301 booths.
Gupta predicted that HBM would drive growth in the memory semiconductor market, particularly in the DRAM sector. He noted, "Last year, HBM accounted for only 1.2% of DRAM shipments, but it is expected to rise to 5% this year." He added, "Graphics processing units (GPUs) and memory will lead short-term growth in the semiconductor market, and although there may be a temporary stagnation in the first half of this year, I believe the growth trend in the memory semiconductor market will continue through next year."
He also forecasted that HBM's share in the DRAM market would increase. Gupta stated, "By 2028, HBM is expected to account for 30.6% of the total DRAM market, and as major suppliers' technology matures, they are likely to focus on improving yield," adding that "HBM’s layers are expected to increase from 8 to 16 layers, and potentially up to 20 layers in the future."
Gupta predicted that prices for memory semiconductors, like DRAM and NAND, would decline in the first quarter of this year, but gradually recover starting in the second half. He noted, "As demand for PCs and smartphones decreases, NAND prices will drop in the first quarter, but in the second half, prices are expected to recover due to a reduction in supply," adding that "the same is likely for DRAM."
SEMI projected that the expansion of the AI market would benefit the materials, components, and equipment market. Clark Chung, senior vice president of SEMI for research and statistics, predicted that investments in DRAM and NAND manufacturing equipment would increase. He stated, "This year, the DRAM equipment market is expected to reach $21 billion (about 30.28 trillion won), a 10% increase compared to the previous year due to production capacity expansion and HBM investments," adding that "NAND equipment purchases, which had seen weakness last year, are expected to rise by 48% this year to $14 billion (about 20.1852 trillion won)."
Chung projected that investments in semiconductor manufacturing plants (fabs) in Korea are expected to reach $29.8 billion (about 42.9686 trillion won) this year, rising to $40.4 billion (about 58.2527 trillion won) next year, particularly with expected increases in NAND investments next year.
He suggested that the increase in orders for AI accelerator manufacturing is also expected to drive growth in the packaging equipment market. This is due to anticipated expanded investments in advanced packaging, such as 2.5D, 3D, and hybrid bonding, for packaging AI semiconductors into final chip forms. SEMI projected that the growth rate of the packaging equipment market would be 16% this year and 23% next year.
The foundry (contract semiconductor manufacturing) market shows overall growth, but it is expected that Taiwan's TSMC, the industry leader, will continue to dominate. Chung stated, "As foundry companies enhance advanced packaging, revenues are expected to increase, and capital investments will also rise until 2026," adding that "while TSMC, Intel, and Samsung Electronics are leading advanced foundry companies, others may continue to face difficulties aside from TSMC."