The Donald Trump administration is pressuring non-American corporations as part of its 'Made in America' chip policy, raising the possibility that Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC), the world's largest foundry, may become a scapegoat.
As the struggles of Intel, a symbol of the U.S. semiconductor manufacturing industry, continue, the Trump administration is effectively coercing a partnership with TSMC. From Taiwan's perspective, which possesses the most advanced chip manufacturing capabilities in the semiconductor industry, it is expected that TSMC will not easily hand over its technology to the U.S. However, given the geopolitical variables such as conflicts with China and the potential for military confrontation, there are also forecasts that it will ultimately have no choice but to seek a compromise with the U.S.
According to industry reports and foreign news sources on the 18th, the Trump administration has been leading the collaboration between TSMC and Intel to expand the establishment of advanced semiconductor factories in the U.S. Just as TSMC has established joint ventures in Japan and Europe, discussions are also underway about forming a joint venture with Intel or acquiring equity in Intel’s foundry.
Experts first assess that the possibility of TSMC acquiring Intel is extremely low. Jun-ho Moon, a researcher at Samsung Securities, noted, 'The acquisition of Intel's factories by TSMC is likely to raise antitrust issues,' explaining that 'currently, only TSMC, Intel, and Samsung Electronics are capable of mass-producing below the 5-nanometer (nm) process.'
According to market research firm TrendForce, TSMC's market share was at 65% based on pure foundry as of the third quarter of 2024. Intel has reported that it would rank as the second-largest foundry in the world if it reflects its internal foundry volume. When considering this, the combined market share of the two companies would reach approximately 70%.
However, there are also forecasts that establishing a joint venture may not be easy. Considering Intel's financial situation, there are analyses suggesting it may be difficult for the company to make new investments. Intel had already lowered its facility investment plan for 2025 during its previous earnings announcement. Researcher Moon stated, 'There have been cultural differences between headquarters and local personnel that have delayed mass production investments in Arizona Fab 1, raising doubts about whether synergy with Intel personnel can be expected.'
The industry is presenting two main scenarios. First, there is the possibility of TSMC and Intel forming a technology cooperation under the auspices of the U.S. government to share advanced mass production technology. TSMC's strength lies in its monopolistic position in the advanced process market. The Trump administration is likely to demand that semiconductor technology be brought to the U.S. by leveraging Taiwan's geopolitical vulnerabilities due to concerns about military conflicts with China.
Some also suggest the possibility that TSMC might enter into a strategic alliance with Intel's packaging business, which would essentially mean that TSMC would subcontract part of the packaging orders back to Intel. An industry insider stated, 'Considering that TSMC is collaborating with OSAT companies in Taiwan or the U.S., this is the most realistic scenario.' However, he explained that it would not significantly help secure the most advanced processes needed by Intel's foundry, making it ultimately a mediocre solution.
Public opinion in Taiwan is also notably unsettled. Yang Ying-chao, a native Taiwanese investment analyst and chairman of Kirkland Capital, remarked to a local media outlet, 'From a business perspective, it is irrational for TSMC to establish semiconductor manufacturing plants (with Intel, etc.). However, from a political standpoint (considering cross-strait relations), it is a rational choice.' He continued, 'If technology cooperation between TSMC and U.S. corporations is established, Taiwan may lose its hegemony in the foundry business.'