As TikTok reportedly plans to completely cease its services in the United States, the movement of the more than 170 million TikTok refugees draws attention. While users are currently flocking to China's applications, Xiaohongshu (Red Book) and LEMON, these apps may also become targets of sanctions depending on public opinion in the U.S. Analysts suggest that Meta, which operates Instagram, and Google, which runs YouTube, will benefit from this situation.
◇ TikTok considers withdrawing completely from the U.S. if the TikTok ban law is implemented
According to foreign reports on the 16th, TikTok is preparing to end its app services for U.S. users. The 'TikTok ban law,' which will take effect on the 19th, does not restrict access for existing TikTok users in the U.S. However, TikTok is reportedly planning to stop its services in the U.S. if the law is implemented. The 'TikTok ban law' states that TikTok's U.S. operations must be sold to U.S. corporations.
TikTok has filed a request for a temporary injunction with the U.S. Supreme Court to suspend the implementation of the TikTok ban law. However, the likelihood of the Supreme Court granting TikTok's request is considered low.
As a result, more than 170 million TikTok users in the U.S. are looking for alternative platforms. TikTok's market value is reported to reach up to $50 billion (72.86 trillion won). Angelo Zino, senior vice president of market analysis firm CFRA Research, estimated TikTok's value to be between $40 billion (58 trillion won) and $50 billion (72 trillion won) by comparing its user numbers and revenues with competing apps.
◇ Xiaohongshu suppresses criticism of the Chinese government... 'Users will reunite on Instagram and YouTube'
Currently, TikTok refugees are gathering on other Chinese apps, Xiaohongshu and LEMON. Xiaohongshu ranked first in the U.S. App Store download rankings this week, while LEMON secured the second position. According to app data analysis firm Sensor Tower, downloads of Xiaohongshu in the U.S. surged more than 200% year-on-year and 194% week-on-week, marking over 700,000 new users acquired in just two days.
However, industry experts believe the popularity of Chinese apps similar to TikTok will gradually wane. This is due to the U.S. intensifying its vigilance against Chinese IT corporations, meaning that Xiaohongshu and LEMON could also fall under sanctions.
Particularly, as Xiaohongshu is also a Chinese company, self-censorship of content is taking place. TikTok operates under different content censorship standards than Douyin, its Chinese version by ByteDance. However, it appears that the same censorship standards as those applied to Chinese users are being implemented for Xiaohongshu. Criticism of President Xi Jinping and satire related to Chinese politics are reportedly subject to sanctions.
Ying Yin, a researcher at Cyberjaya University Malaysia, noted, "This app (Xiaohongshu) will not be like Facebook or Instagram," adding that, "Even topics like healthcare and finance are often banned on the platform."
Industry expectations suggest that TikTok users will look to find alternatives in Instagram Reels and YouTube Shorts. Even now, content posted on TikTok is being shared directly to Instagram Reels. In the case of YouTube Shorts, users may seek differentiation by utilizing YouTube Music or linking to long-form content.
IT media TechCrunch explained, "It is unclear whether Xiaohongshu can sustain the attention it is currently gaining," stating that, "If this app secures a significant user base in the U.S., it is uncertain whether the U.S. government will regulate it due to ownership issues with China." They also stated, "Although TikTok's content recommendation algorithm is superior to Instagram's, improved performance can be expected due to the company's investment in the Reels recommendation algorithm."