China's exports in March increased by more than 12% compared to a year ago, exceeding market expectations. This seems to be due to Chinese corporations aggressively pushing out quantities before the U.S.-China trade war intensified. There are forecasts that the impact of the increase in U.S. tariffs will become evident starting this month.
According to the General Administration of Customs of China on the 14th, the export amount in March reached $313.9 billion (approximately 448.5 trillion won), marking a 12.4% year-on-year increase. This is a significant rise compared to the increase rate of 2.3% in January and February, and it represents the highest level in five months. Market expectations compiled by Bloomberg were also greatly surpassed at 4.6%.
These figures are interpreted as a result of Chinese export corporations engaging in 'push-out' strategies in response to the intensifying U.S.-China trade war. Bloomberg noted, 'Many corporations likely accelerated orders ahead of the tariff imposition.' Since February, the U.S. has imposed a total tariff of 145% on imports from China. Until March, a 20% tariff was applied, and this month, the tariff rate has significantly increased.
In March, actual exports to the U.S. amounted to $40.1 billion (approximately 57.1 trillion won), reflecting a 9.1% increase compared to the same period last year. Compared to the previous month, this marked an increase of over 40%. Exports to Southeast Asia, a region where Chinese export corporations are focusing on diversifying sales, also rose by 11.6%. Among these, Thailand (27.8%), Indonesia (24.6%), and Vietnam (18.9%) showed significant growth. Bloomberg stated, '(Chinese) corporations are shifting shipments to several Southeast Asian countries.'
However, forecasts suggest that the impact of the U.S.-China trade war will be reflected in export indicators starting this month. Julian Evans-Pritchard, the head of China economics at Capital Economics, said, 'We expect shipment volumes to decrease over the next few months and quarters,' adding that 'it may take years for Chinese exports to recover to current levels.' David Cui, an economist at Bloomberg Economics, noted, 'China's March export data has not yet fully reflected the effects of the trade war,' and stated that 'exports could face strong headwinds in April.'
In March, China's imports totaled $211.3 billion (approximately 302.1 trillion won), marking a 4.3% decrease year on year and falling short of market expectations (2.1%). This is interpreted as a result of sluggish domestic demand leading to a decrease in imports. As a result, the trade surplus for March was recorded at $102.6 billion (approximately 146.6 trillion won).