Concerns over a global tariff war are growing due to President Donald Trump's announcement on tariffs, increasing the likelihood of a recession in the United States.

On the 25th of last month (local time), a volunteer fills baskets for those in need at a community food bank in Brooklyn, New York. The Donald Trump administration proposes to cut billions of dollars in funding for such programs. /Courtesy of Getty Images=Yonhap News

According to Reuters on the 7th (local time), investment bank Goldman Sachs has raised the probability of the United States entering a recession within the next 12 months from the previous 35% to 45%. This marks another upward adjustment following an increase from 20% to 35% just a month ago. Goldman Sachs analyzed that "the deterioration in financial conditions and policy uncertainty are likely to inhibit corporate investment more than expected."

J.P. Morgan has also revised its forecast for U.S. growth this year from the previous 1.3% to -0.3%, and UBS and Barclays have warned of a technical recession and negative growth.

As concerns over a recession grow, the possibility of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve (Fed) is also gaining weight. Fed Chair Jerome Powell has stated that "it is still too early to talk about policy shifts," but the market is expecting an interest rate cut next month as a given.

According to the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) FedWatch, the possibility of a reduction in the benchmark interest rate has soared to 53.4%, more than doubling from a week ago. The market predominantly expects the June rate to be lower than the current range of 4.25% to 4.50%, with predictions that it could drop by over 1 percentage point by December reaching 86%.

Such projections are also reflected in the government bonds market, with the yield on U.S. 10-year government bonds fluctuating around 3.9%.