U.S. President Donald Trump will deliver a speech on April 2 at 4 p.m. (5 a.m. on April 3, Korea Standard Time) in the Rose Garden of the White House at an event themed "making America wealthier." This means Trump will directly announce reciprocal tariffs and implement them immediately. As a result, the "Trump tariffs" imposed on or planned to be imposed on certain products such as steel, aluminum, and automobiles against some countries including China, Canada, and Mexico will be expanded to the entire world. Reciprocal tariffs mean that as other countries impose tariffs and non-tariff barriers on the U.S., the U.S. will also impose tariffs.
To prepare detailed guidelines for the implementation of reciprocal tariffs, Trump directed the Department of Commerce and the Office of the United States Trade Representative (USTR) on Feb. 13 to assess each country's trade barriers, including tariffs, and report back. The USTR published its annual "National Trade Barrier Report" on March 31, and Trump said he made decisions regarding reciprocal tariffs that day, but specific details remain undisclosed. This raises three unknown factors related to reciprocal tariffs.
◇ Will the reciprocal tariff be a flat 20%? ... It may vary by country
The first question is the tariff rate. The White House has not disclosed how high the tariffs will be, and various options are being presented in the market. During his election campaign, Trump pledged to impose a universal tariff of 10% on all imported goods. He mentioned that tariffs on Chinese imports could be 20%, or even 60%. However, with the introduction of the concept of "reciprocal tariffs" after taking office, it is possible that tariff rates may differ by country instead of having a uniform universal tariff.
In this regard, Trump introduced the concept of reciprocal tariffs on Feb. 2, saying, "Simply put, if they charge us a fee, we charge them a fee too." However, the White House has indicated that when imposing reciprocal tariffs, it will consider not only tariffs but also factors that American corporations find unfair, such as value-added taxes, making it difficult to predict the scope and rates of the reciprocal tariffs.
The White House is reported to have suggested a uniform tariff rate of 20% on all imports, as well as applying individual tariff rates by country. If the Trump administration introduces a uniform tariff rate for reciprocal tariffs, it will resemble the concept of the universal tariff that Trump promised. Caroline Levitt, White House spokesperson, said during a briefing on April 2 regarding whether a uniform tariff will be imposed, "Trump said he made a decision yesterday, but I do not want to speak ahead of Trump. You will find out within about 24 hours," avoiding a direct answer.
◇ Which countries will be affected by reciprocal tariffs?
The second question concerns the range of countries affected by the reciprocal tariffs. Trump indicated on April 2 that the announcement would be comprehensive, but it is not definitively known which countries will be impacted. As the imposition of reciprocal tariffs approaches, it remains uncertain whether they will take the form of universal tariffs or be applied on a country-by-country basis. Trump suggested on March 30 that the new tariffs could be "applied to all countries," hinting at the possibility of imposing universal tariffs.
However, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent hinted on March 18 that 15 countries that account for a significant portion of U.S. foreign trade and impose high tariffs or build non-tariff barriers on American products will be major targets, using the term "Dirty 15." Kevin Hassett, Chairperson of the White House National Economic Council (NEC), also mentioned in an interview with Fox Business that the Trump administration is keeping an eye on 10 to 15 countries that cause the "$1 trillion trade deficit" each year.
According to data from the U.S. Department of Commerce in 2024, the major trade partners with a significant share of the U.S. trade deficit are China, the European Union, Mexico, Vietnam, Germany, Taiwan, Japan, South Korea, Canada, India, Thailand, Italy, Switzerland, Malaysia, Indonesia, France, Austria, and Sweden. The USTR identified 21 countries that engage in unfair trade practices. These include Argentina, Australia, Brazil, Canada, China, the European Union, India, Japan, Malaysia, Indonesia, Mexico, Russia, Saudi Arabia, South Africa, Switzerland, Taiwan, Thailand, Turkey, the United Kingdom, and Vietnam, including South Korea. Before the release of the "National Trade Barrier Report," the USTR classified these 21 countries as "of special interest" and gathered public opinion for the report's preparation. Given that more than 10 countries, including South Korea, are listed among the top countries causing trade deficits as well as those identified for unfair trade practices, there is keen interest in whether reciprocal tariffs will be imposed on South Korea.
◇ Will U.S. corporations face backlash from the imposition of reciprocal tariffs?
The third question is who will pay the reciprocal tariffs. According to the definition of tariffs, they are borne by U.S. corporations that import goods. The higher the tariff, the more companies will seek to offset costs by changing suppliers, sharing burdens with business partners, or increasing prices on goods sold in the U.S. Consequently, the imposition of tariffs is expected to have effects not only on the U.S. but also on other countries. While Trump maintains that to avoid tariffs, businesses should operate in the U.S., establishing factories incurs significant costs, making it not an immediate or easy solution.
The Japan External Trade Organization (JETRO) estimates that the global reciprocal tariffs, which include a 20% tax on automobiles and previously imposed tariffs on Chinese goods, will cause a 0.6% drop in global gross domestic product (GDP) by 2027. Based on the International Monetary Fund (IMF) GDP forecast of $127 trillion for 2027, this amounts to $763 billion.