The 'Anti-Secession Law' (hereafter referred to as the Anti-Secession Law), which emphasizes 'One China' and justifies China's military actions against Taiwan, marks its 20th anniversary. As attention focuses on the level of the message China will transmit to Taiwan, conflicts across the Taiwan Strait have reached a peak. The previous day, Taiwanese President Lai Ching-te labeled China as 'an overseas hostile force', prompting a fierce denunciation from China, which is also stirring public opinion on the unification of Taiwan online through social media. As tensions surrounding the Taiwan Strait intensify, forecasts suggest they will continue to escalate.
According to the Singapore United Daily on the 14th, the Taiwan Affairs Office of the State Council, China's agency responsible for Taiwan, notified Taiwan media based in Beijing that 'a significant event' would be held that day at the Great Hall of the People in Beijing. While the specific details of the event were not mentioned, Taiwanese media largely speculate it to be the 20th anniversary event of the Anti-Secession Law. The key point is the level of the message directed at Taiwan, which depends on who from the Chinese leadership delivers the speech. Wang Hsin-shien, director of the International Relations Research Center at National Chengchi University, noted, 'If Chairperson Zhao Leji of the National People's Congress delivers a speech at this event, it would be an 'average level' announcement; if Xi Jinping attends and speaks, it would be a 'top-level' announcement.' At the 15th-anniversary ceremony, then Chairperson Li Zhanshu of the National People's Congress delivered a speech.
The Anti-Secession Law was enacted on March 14, 2005, to hinder Taiwan's independence movements. This was in response to the increasing voices of pro-independence figures in Taiwan in the late 1990s. The Anti-Secession Law emphasizes the principle of 'One China' and explicitly states that Taiwan is part of China. It also asserts that while efforts for peaceful unification between China and Taiwan must be prioritized, military action may be taken if Taiwan declares independence or if peaceful unification is impossible. China's increased military training in the Taiwan Strait is based on this law.
Conflicts across the Taiwan Strait are escalating to unprecedented heights. The previous day, Lai Ching-te held a press conference and announced the 'five major national security and unification front threats Taiwan is facing and 17 corresponding response strategies.' He noted that the number of Chinese spies in Taiwan is increasing, and their influence is expanding, stating, 'China has already become the 'overseas hostile force' defined by Taiwan's anti-penetration law. We must take more proactive actions.' Lai Ching-te is strongly anti-China to the extent of labeling himself an 'independence activist.' In response, China's Taiwan Affairs Office released a late-night statement denouncing Lai, stating, '(He) has indeed proven to be a true 'destroyer of cross-strait peace' and 'creator of crises in the Taiwan Strait,' adding, 'Those who play with fire are bound to be burned by it.'
China is also stoking public opinion for Taiwanese unification. As of 10 a.m. local time that day, the most popular search term on China's largest social media platform, Weibo, was 'China Taiwan Province.' This expression asserts that Taiwan is not an independent country but one of China's local governments. The popular search term is being led by the state-run China Central Television (CCTV). The CCTV emphasized, 'Support and deliver' by adding hashtags such as 'China Taiwan Province' and 'Taiwan is Taiwan for all Chinese' to its post of the statement from the Taiwan Affairs Office the previous day. Of the more than 10,000 comments on this post, most support 'One China,' with extreme opinions such as, 'We must arrest Lai Ching-te and execute his entire family,' and 'Let’s reclaim Taiwan before May 1 (Labor Day), we can no longer wait.'
There are rising predictions that China's pressure on Taiwan will increase. Taiwan's United Daily reported, quoting a national security official, that 'the infiltration of Taiwan by mainland China is far more serious than we know, and the government has no choice but to coordinate and formalize countermeasures.' This is a factor that necessitates China to increase pressure on Taiwan. Indeed, Li Qiang, Premier of the State Council of China, stated in the government work report at the National People's Congress on the 4th, 'We must adhere to the principle of 'One China' and firmly oppose 'Taiwan independence' separatism and external interference, while promoting the peaceful development of cross-strait relations,' asserting that 'we must advance the great task of national reunification without wavering and realize the great rejuvenation of the nation together.' Since last year, China has removed the term 'peaceful unification,' which it had repeatedly mentioned since 2012. This reflects the backdrop of a more coercive cross-strait policy and the potential use of force.
Donald Trump's 'strategic ambiguity' is also emerging as a variable in cross-strait relations. Trump remarked that any attempt by China to invade Taiwan would be 'catastrophic,' yet he stated, 'I won't answer whether the U.S. will intervene in Taiwan's defense. I absolutely do not want to be in such an awkward position.' The United Daily commented that 'the five major threats and 17 response strategies proposed by Lai Ching-te the previous day serve to emphasize that the Chinese Communist Party's willingness to militarily annex our country (Taiwan) has grown even greater than before and hope that the U.S. will pay attention to the situation in the Taiwan Strait.'