U.S. President Donald Trump has announced that he will impose a 25% tariff on Mexico starting Feb. 1 (local time), while Mexico has warned of a counter-response, signaling the beginning of a full-blown tariff war.
According to Anadolu Agency and others on the 31st (local time), Marcelo Ebrard, Mexico's Minister of Economy, said at a regular presidential press conference that "U.S. consumers will face higher prices on products such as fruits, vegetables, meat, automobiles, and home appliances," and noted, "The tariffs from the U.S. will be a strategic mistake." He emphasized once again that if the U.S. imposes tariffs, Mexico will also take countermeasures.
Mexico previously imposed retaliatory tariffs of 10% to 20% on 90 U.S. agricultural and industrial products worth $2.4 billion when the Barack Obama administration banned the entry of Mexican freight trucks in 2009. During Trump's first term in 2018, Mexico also imposed tariffs on U.S. steel and agricultural products.
Claudia Sheinbaum, the President of Mexico, has also stated, "We will not just stand by" and indicated plans to impose retaliatory tariffs. Sheinbaum noted, "The U.S. tariffs are effectively nullifying the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA)," but added that "there are plans depending on what the U.S. government decides."
During his first term in 2020, Trump pushed for the USMCA, arguing that the long-standing North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) was unfavorable to the U.S. However, during last year's presidential election campaign, he indicated that he would abandon the USMCA if Canada and Mexico did not make efforts to curb illegal immigration and drug trafficking into the U.S.
However, there are forecasts that the importance of Mexico in the U.S. economy is increasing, making negotiations for Trump more complicated. According to the Mexican government, Mexico exported $490.1 billion to the U.S. in 2023, ranking first in exports to the U.S. During the same period, the scale of goods imported from the U.S. was $255.4 billion, resulting in a significant trade surplus.