Germany, which once dominated Europe as a manufacturing powerhouse, has recently fallen to become “the sick man of Europe” due to its inability to cope with high energy expenses. The United States, aiming for supremacy in artificial intelligence (AI), has declared an energy emergency and is fully committed to securing energy. As advanced technology develops, energy has become a crucial factor determining national fate. This article examines the current and future energy policies of South Korea through the cases of Germany and the United States.[Editor's note]
It is true that the previous government neglected nuclear power. The Democratic Party has reflected on this and is making efforts to improve.
Kim Dong-a, a member of the Democratic Party, said this during a forum held at the National Assembly on the 13th, titled “Finding Ways to Respond to the Climate Crisis, Nuclear Power and Rational Energy Mix Development.” Unlike the era of the Moon Jae-in government, which pursued a policy of phasing out nuclear power, he emphasized that there is now a recognition of the importance of nuclear power generation.
However, the Democratic Party maintained its opposition until the end to the government's plan to build three new large-scale nuclear power plants during the establishment of the 11th Basic Plan for Electricity Supply and Demand finalized last month. After the declaration of martial law by President Yoon Suk-yeol, the government yielded to the opposition, and the new nuclear power plan was reduced by one unit from the original plan.
Recently, as the importance of stable energy supply has been emphasized due to the rapid growth of the artificial intelligence (AI) industry and rising energy procurement expenses, criticisms have emerged that domestic energy policies are influenced by political situations, causing instability in energy supply and demand.
◇ Energy policy marred by political strife... Nuclear phase-out reaches its peak
The beginning of the energy policy becoming a target of political disputes dates back to the Lee Myung-bak administration in 2011. In September of that year, as strategic consumption surged, the power authorities implemented regional rolling blackouts across the country to prevent a blackout, affecting approximately 7.53 million households. In response, the opposition launched a fierce attack on the government, demanding the adoption of a resolution for the president's apology, the dismissal of then-Minister of Knowledge Economy Choi Joong-kyung, and an audit request to the Board of Audit and Inspection.
After experiencing turmoil due to the blackout, the Lee Myung-bak administration increased the maximum electricity demand forecast by 12.5% starting from the 6th Basic Plan for Electricity Supply and Demand. The opposition criticized this as a 'hit-or-miss electricity supply plan' and once again demanded an audit request. The 7th Basic Plan was announced by the Park Geun-hye administration in 2015 and included plans to build two new nuclear power plants by 2029. The opposition accused the Ministry of Trade, Industry and Energy of being a 'nuclear power mafia.'
The Moon Jae-in administration overturned the nuclear-centric energy policies of the Lee Myung-bak and Park Geun-hye administrations, advocating for policies of 'nuclear phase-out and expansion of renewable energy.' The energy sector has raised concerns that the Moon Jae-in administration underestimated electricity demand in pushing for nuclear phase-out.
In the 8th Basic Plan for Electricity Supply and Demand established by the Moon Jae-in administration in 2017, the maximum electricity demand for the final year, 2031, was forecasted to be 98 GW (gigawatts) in summer and 101 GW in winter. This represents a decrease of 11.7% and 9.8% respectively compared to the forecasts from the 7th Basic Plan's final year (2029). It is typical for electricity usage to increase as the economy develops, but the expectation was that it would actually decrease. This was the first time the final year's forecast in the electricity plan was reduced compared to the past.
The Moon Jae-in administration reduced cheap nuclear power generation based on the expectation that electricity demand would decrease. However, contrary to industry concerns, actual electricity demand significantly exceeded the Moon Jae-in administration's forecasts. As the proportion of more expensive renewable energy and liquefied natural gas (LNG) increased, the burden on Korea Electric Power Corporation (KEPCO) grew. According to a report prepared by the National Assembly Research Service, the total loss incurred by KEPCO during the Moon Jae-in administration over five years reached 25.8 trillion won.
◇ After the presidential impeachment, nuclear power reduction resumes... “Politics must be excluded from energy”
The Yoon Suk-yeol administration, which launched in 2022, established an energy supply plan centered on nuclear power. This reflects the market's voice that electricity demand will significantly increase in the future due to climate change and the rapid growth of the AI market. For instance, the semiconductor mega-cluster being developed by Samsung Electronics and SK hynix in Yongin, Gyeonggi Province, requires 16 gigawatts (GW) of electricity alone, necessitating the construction of over 10 new nuclear plants to meet this demand.
In establishing the 11th Basic Plan for Electricity Supply and Demand, which includes forecasts for electricity demand and supply plans until 2038, the government identified a need for three new large-scale nuclear power plants. This is because electricity demand is expected to reach 129.3 GW by 2038 due to semiconductor manufacturing and the construction of AI data centers. However, as the Democratic Party requested a reduction in new nuclear plants and an increase in the proportion of renewable energy, it was ultimately reduced to two.
In the energy sector, there are comments reflecting President Yoon's unstable political standing. If the Constitutional Court approves the impeachment motion against President Yoon, an early election could be held, and there is a possibility of a change in administration, which means that public officials may have to be cautious of the opposition.
The Ministry of Trade, Industry and Energy has decided to replace the reduced new nuclear plants with solar power generation. However, there are many concerns that solar power generation requires vast amounts of land and may not supply electricity as expected due to domestic climate characteristics.
Jung Beom-jin, a professor of nuclear engineering at Kyunghee University, noted that considering KEPCO's debt of 200 trillion won, surging electricity demand, and carbon neutrality, the 11th Basic Plan should have included more plans for new nuclear power construction, saying, “Politics must no longer interfere with energy policy formulation.”
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