It was a week of chaos in the stock market due to the tariff war initiated by U.S. President Donald Trump. With just a few words from Trump, market participants oscillated between highs and lows. As news of mutual tariff implementations, delays of 90 days, and a possible maximum tariff of 145% on China flooded in, the stock market repeatedly soared and plunged.

The KOSPI index started at 2465.42 on the 7th and ended trading at 2432.72 on the 11th, marking a weekly decline of 1.33% (32.7). The KOSDAQ index showed a slight increase, rising from 687.39 to 695.59 during the same period.

U.S. President Donald Trump is seen during a meeting at the White House on Oct. 10. President Trump warned that changing the tariff policy would entail a significant expense as the trade war with China worsens and stock prices decline./AFP Yonhap News

On the surface, it appears to have slightly risen and fallen, but looking at the process, it was a rollercoaster. Following the implementation of mutual tariffs on the 7th, the KOSPI fell by 5.57%. This was the largest drop since 'Black Monday' on August 5 of last year. After hitting the bottom, the KOSPI index rose by 6.6% on the 10th, following Trump's announcement to delay mutual tariffs on other countries excluding China for 90 days.

However, the gains on the 10th were reversed on the 11th when news broke that the U.S. tariff rate on China had increased to 145%, rather than the previously reported 125%. Concerns about the escalation of U.S.-China trade tensions spread, and a similar pattern was observed in the KOSDAQ market.

This week, the Monetary Policy Committee of the Bank of Korea is scheduled to meet on the 18th. Initially, the market anticipated a rate cut after May, but due to ongoing adjustments to South Korea's growth rate by global investment banks and the continued high exchange rate environment, rumors of a rate cut in April have also emerged. Park Seok-gil, an economist at JPMorgan, noted, "In the April Monetary Policy Committee meeting, rates could be lowered by 25 basis points (1 basis point is 0.01 percentage point) to respond proactively to external demand challenges."

Even if a rate cut occurs, if there are policy changes regarding tariffs from the U.S., the stock market could experience greater fluctuations. For the time being, speedy responses to U.S. tariff policy changes are deemed more important than performance or inflation forecasts.

Bank of Korea Governor Lee Chang-yong strikes the gavel to open the Monetary Policy Committee meeting at the Bank of Korea headquarters in Jung-gu, Seoul, on Feb. 25. Although expectations for an interest rate cut arise ahead of the committee meeting next week, market uncertainty remains due to tariff impacts./News1

Lee Jae-won, a researcher at Shinhan Investment Corp., stated, "The 25% tariffs on automobiles and steel, the 10% universal tariff worldwide, and the 145% tariff rate on China are still ongoing," adding that "it is difficult to resolve uncertainties in the short term."

Lee Min-hee, a researcher at BNK Investment Securities, mentioned, "The actual demand impact from tariff imposition and the April inflation indicators will be confirmed around early to mid-May, during which confusion seems inevitable," and advised that "it is necessary to monitor the impact of tariffs while considering the next investment opportunity."

Lee Woong-chan, a researcher at iM Securities, said, "While stringent tariff policies may eventually be reduced, it is essential to observe the negotiation process from April to June," and added that "considering the presidential election, domestic stimulus, and the possibility of tariff negotiations, further declines in the KOSPI index are unlikely, but there are also no visible reasons for an increase."