Job seeker Park Mo, 26, decides on investment stocks by referring to securities firms' stock analysis reports before the stock market opens. He expected to earn revenue by selecting stocks with a significant difference between the target price and the current price, buying immediately after the market opens and selling during the day.
However, Mr. Park bought stocks whose prices were significantly lower than the target price recently, but the stock prices did not rise for over a week. Rather, other securities firms began to lower their target prices. Mr. Park noted, "I thought that a large discrepancy rate with the target price would lead to an increase, but I realized that was not the case."
According to financial information provider FnGuide on the 24th, the stock with the greatest discrepancy between the target price and the current price among securities firms as of the 21st is HANMI Semiconductor. Securities firms estimate the stock price (target price) six months later while analyzing specific stocks, and they suggested a target price of 166,667 won for HANMI Semiconductor. This is 84.4% higher than the closing price of 90,400 won on the 20th.
The difference between the appropriate stock price (target price) that securities firms consider and the actual stock price means there is potential for an increase, but conversely, it could also indicate that the company's stock price is falling rapidly. HANMI Semiconductor, which started the year at around 80,000 won, rose to 126,100 won on Jan. 22, but recently has barely maintained the 90,000 won range. This is half the level of the peak on June 13 of last year when it reached 189,000 won.
The decline in HANMI Semiconductor's stock price turned around at the end of January when Chinese artificial intelligence (AI) startup DeepSeek developed a high-performance AI model at a low cost. At that time, both domestic and international semiconductor stocks, including NVIDIA, fell sharply, raising doubts about existing large-scale infrastructure investments and leading to concerns about a semiconductor bubble. HANMI Semiconductor, which supplies key equipment to semiconductor manufacturers, also faced a downturn.
This month, the emergence of latecomers in the TC bonder market (TCB, thermal compression), which HANMI Semiconductor has maintained a dominant position in, has also acted as bad news. TC bonders are essential equipment for manufacturing AI semiconductors, and HANMI Semiconductor holds more than 70% market share in this area.
HANMI Semiconductor has been exclusively supplying TC bonders to SK hynix, but recently Hanwha Vision's subsidiary Hanwha Semitec passed quality verification (qualitest) and signed a TC bonder supply contract worth 21 billion won with SK hynix.
As a result, the target price of HANMI Semiconductor is being lowered in Yeouido. Until last month, KB Securities had set the target price for HANMI Semiconductor at 150,000 won, but this month it has been lowered to 130,000 won. The estimated sales for the first quarter were reduced from the previous 209 billion won to 167.2 billion won, and the operating profit forecast was also lowered from 96.3 billion won to 83.9 billion won.
According to a representative from a securities firm, "In a declining market, the discrepancy between the target price set by the securities firm and the actual stock price tends to increase," advising, "It is necessary to observe the direction of the target price for at least one year."
Stocks such as Cosmecca Korea (82.9%), Lotte Tour Development (81.6%), WCP (77.6%), Daewoong Pharmaceutical (72.1%), and CJ Freshway (72%) also had target prices much higher than the actual stock prices.
In contrast, Hanwha System's current stock price was 20.37% higher than the target price. Hanwha Ocean (17.96%) and Hanwha Aerospace (4.86%) are also positioned high on the list of Hanwha Group stocks with current prices above target prices.
The fact that the current stock price is higher than the target price indicates that the market's movement is faster than the securities firm's expectations, resulting in an increase in stock prices. Hanwha System has risen 61.60% this year, while Hanwha Ocean has increased 95.72% and Hanwha Aerospace has risen 92.34%.
However, investments based solely on target prices should be approached with caution. On the 20th, Hanwha Aerospace announced a capital increase of 360 billion won, causing the stock to drop by 13.02% in just one day on the 21st. Investors reacted sensitively to the decision, as the company, despite having sufficient cash and stable operating profits, is asking shareholders for money, which led to a general sell-off in group stocks such as Hanwha (-12.53%), Hanwha System (-6.19%), and Hanwha Solutions (-5.78%).
A representative from the financial investment industry said, "The discrepancy rate should not be interpreted simply as potential for stock price increases," noting, "Since analysts' personal judgments have a significant impact, careful consideration in investments is necessary."