Analysis has emerged that the surge in the amount of gold imported by the United States is also affecting the domestic gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate.
According to iM Securities on the 17th, the amount of gold imported by the United States jumped from $10.3 billion in December last year to $30.4 billion in January this year. Considering that the average monthly gold import amount from January to November 2024 was about $990 million, this is more than a 30-fold increase.
The share of gold imports in total imports also surged from 0.8% in November last year to 9.6% in January this year. The source of the imported gold was concentrated in Switzerland. As a result, while Switzerland usually accounted for about 1% of U.S. imports, this exceeded 5% in December last year and reached 7.5% in January this year. This also impacted the expansion of the U.S. trade deficit.
The exact reason for the sudden increase in U.S. gold demand has not been identified. Park Sang-hyun, a researcher at iM Securities, noted, "One could speculate that concerns about tariffs on precious metals like gold and silver due to Trump's tariff policy led to some over-demand. This could also be interpreted as an intent to resolve liquidity issues in the U.S. gold market, which surged due to uncertainties surrounding Trump's policies and fears of a global economic slowdown."
The researcher, Park, added, "If this trend continues, the interpretation of U.S. gold imports should be viewed from another perspective," and stated that "it is necessary to watch whether U.S. imports will continue to increase in February and March this year."
There is also analysis that gold imports are affecting the GDP growth rate. The Atlanta Federal Reserve's estimate for first-quarter GDP was -2.4% year-over-year as of the 6th. However, if the impact of gold imports is excluded from the contribution of net exports, which pulled down the GDP growth rate, it could be significantly adjusted upward to around -0.4%.
The researcher, Park, said, "In the end, due to uncertainties around President Trump's policies, it is difficult to avoid a slowdown in U.S. growth in the first or second quarter, but it will not enter a serious recession phase," adding, "Even looking at Bloomberg's survey of U.S. GDP growth forecasts, there are still no institutions predicting negative growth."