Since the launch of the 'Trump 2nd Administration,' the world has been on alert regarding how the tariff war will unfold. As global markets hold their breath in response to the unpredictable words and actions of U.S. President Donald Trump, he confirmed that he would impose a 25% tariff on Canada and Mexico as scheduled on the 4th, as well as announce an additional 10% tariff on China on the same day, where a 10% tariff had already been imposed. Consequently, there are growing concerns in the United States regarding inflation and declining consumer sentiment due to President Trump's widespread tariff policy.
In addition to President Trump's comments on tariffs, there is another policy that warrants close attention. It is the energy policy of the Trump 2nd Administration. President Trump shouted 'Drill, baby, drill' during his inauguration ceremony in January this year, indicating a revival of fossil fuels such as oil. Energy policy is an area that is inevitably influenced by major powers like the United States globally.
Yoon Jae-hong of Mirae Asset Securities noted, 'The energy and infrastructure policy of the Trump 2nd Administration aims to achieve energy independence through affordable and reliable energy supply,' and added, 'The goal is to stabilize prices by relaxing and abolishing various regulations and expanding production.' Given this situation, it is expected that eco-friendly policies will be relatively limited.
In fact, President Trump signed Executive Order 14154, 'Unleashing American Energy,' shortly after taking office, which expands hegemony centered on fossil energy. He also abolished existing eco-friendly policies and established the U.S. Energy Dominance Commission (NEDC) to oversee energy policy. This commission aims to stabilize prices through expanding domestic energy production, addressing supply chain risks, substituting essential mineral imports, and expanding LNG supply to allied countries. Research Institute Yoon summarized, 'The keywords related to energy in the Trump 2nd Administration can be summarized as increasing supply of crude oil and LNG, essential minerals, and attempts at alternatives such as nuclear energy.'
This is an aspect where related stocks can't help but exhibit mixed fortunes. As the U.S. is expected to actively pursue a policy of expanding liquefied natural gas (LNG), it is analyzed that LNG-related stocks will benefit from the Trump 2nd Administration. On the contrary, regarding secondary batteries, it is anticipated that they will be negatively impacted as President Trump signed the executive order for U.S. energy liberation and expressed his intention to abolish eco-friendly policies such as the Green New Deal and the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) promoted by the Biden Administration.
Research Institute Yoon stated that the U.S. will 'continuously expand supply for traditional energies like crude oil to attempt price stabilization,' adding, 'This is a negative factor for oil and gas production and exploration (E&P), which are sensitive to oil prices. Therefore, it is advisable to approach primarily through transportation and storage (midstream) sectors that can benefit.'
Park Seong-bong, a researcher at Hana Securities, said that following President Trump's signing of the executive order imposing a 25% tariff on steel, 'steel prices in the U.S., especially prices for oil country tubular goods (OCTG), have surged.' This can be seen as a positive development for the industry related to petroleum pipeline exports.
Conversely, environmental, social, and governance (ESG) policies are expected to be limited. Since President Trump took office, the U.S. has not attended international climate conferences. The U.S. delegation did not attend the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) climate finance committee meeting. Moreover, the attendance of U.S. government scientists at meetings of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change has been banned. President Trump also stated he would withdraw the financial support promised at the Conference of the Parties to the Climate Change Convention and retracted the commitment of $4 billion to the Green Climate Fund intended to assist impoverished nations in addressing the climate crisis.
Kim Hu-jeong of Yuanta Securities analyzed, 'President Trump is more aggressively neutralizing ESG policies in the 2nd Administration than in the 1st Administration,' noting that 'this is because lowering energy prices is necessary to curb inflation.' He further added, 'As President Trump's anti-ESG response becomes stronger than expected, related policies are also weakening in Europe and other areas.'