The stock prices of food corporations are increasingly sensitive to export performance, leading to a significant divergence in corporate fortunes. Unlike Pulmuone and Samyang Foods, which have maintained strong stock prices this year, Nongshim's stock price has fallen back. However, as key consumption indicators in the United States fluctuate, there are suggestions that stock prices might also undergo corrections.
Pulmuone shares were traded at 15,330 won on the KOSPI market at 10 a.m. on the 24th. The stock price fell by 3.71% (590 won) compared to the previous trading day. However, when considering the annual stock price increase, it reached 43.3%. Similarly, Samyang Foods' stock price has jumped by 15.7% (120,000 won) this year.
In contrast, OTOKI is stagnant, and Nongshim remains in negative (-) revenue despite a stock price increase during the day. The biggest difference in their stock prices is attributed to the proportion of domestic and export markets in their revenues.
Samyang Foods has surpassed 80% in export share, led by its stir-fried chicken noodles. Pulmuone estimates its domestic market share at around 80% based on last year's figures; however, overseas business, especially in the U.S., shows double-digit growth rates, indicating a steady increase in export share. In contrast, Nongshim and OTOKI maintain domestic share levels of around 90%.
The same goes for other food stocks. Stocks like Binggrae and ORION, which are expected to see increases in exports, have shown upward trends this year. However, those focused on the domestic market, such as Lotte Chilsung and HiteJinro, have continued to struggle.
In a situation where the outlook for the domestic food industry is not bright, the higher the dependence on the domestic market, the less attractive the investment becomes. The Korea Agro-Fisheries & Food Trade Corporation (aT) reported the food industry business outlook index at 98.5 for the first quarter of this year, down 4.1 points from last year's fourth quarter (102.6). This marks the first time it has fallen below the benchmark (100) in a year, indicating that more corporations expect contraction rather than expansion in the food industry.
However, it has also become difficult to guarantee exports. This is due to signals indicating that consumer spending in the U.S., the largest market, has passed its peak. Walmart, which serves as a gauge for U.S. consumer trends, projected a revenue growth rate of 3-4% for the fiscal year 2026 (February 2025 to January 2026), which is lower than market expectations (4%).
Standard & Poor's (S&P) Global reported the preliminary U.S. services Purchasing Managers' Index for February at 49.7, which falls below the baseline of 50 that separates expansion from contraction. This is the first time it has dropped below 50 in 25 months since January 2023.
The University of Michigan's finalized consumer sentiment index for February was also revised down to 64.7, lower than the preliminary figure of 67.8 announced earlier this month. This marks two consecutive months of decline, reaching the lowest level since November 2023.
Park Seong-ho, a research institute at LS Securities, said, "This year, companies in the food sectors where exports may increase are expected to attract attention. However, while last year focused on stocks with strong export results, this year, it is believed that stocks that can appropriately respond to rapidly changing global trends should be the focus."