He again predicted Korea would reach the round of 16. And this time he even left open the possibility of finishing first in the group. Joachim Clement, a German economist who drew global attention by correctly predicting the winners of the last three World Cups, forecasted a strong performance by Hong Myung-bo's team at the 2026 International Federation of Association Football (FIFA) North American World Cup.
The BBC in the U.K. on the 27th (Korean time) shone a spotlight on Clement, who has analyzed World Cup results with a unique predictive model. He attracted attention by correctly forecasting Germany's 2014 World Cup win in Brazil, France's 2018 World Cup win in Russia, and Argentina's 2022 World Cup win in Qatar.
His pick for this North American World Cup was the Netherlands. He predicted the Netherlands, which has not yet won a World Cup, would lift the trophy for the first time in history.
The Netherlands have reached the final three times to date but have always fallen at the last hurdle. They finished runners-up after losing to West Germany in 1974, Argentina in 1978, and Spain in 2010. But Clement predicted the orange army would avenge those long-standing disappointments at this tournament.
Attention, as ever, was on Korea.
According to Clement's predictive model, the Korea national football team led by coach Hong Myung-bo will advance from the 32-team knockout into the round of 16. Their opponent would be Scotland. The analysis indicates Korea would beat Scotland and move one round further in the tournament.
In particular, this scenario aligns with the increasingly raised possibility within and outside the football world that Korea could finish first in its group.
Earlier, with Eastern Europe's Czech Republic advancing through European qualifying playoff path D, Korea's first group-stage opponent was confirmed. Korea was placed in Group A alongside host Mexico, the Czech Republic, and South Africa.
Although Mexico was initially seen as the favorite to top the group, recent assessments increasingly suggest Korea can competently contest for the top spot. Clement's prediction follows the same trend.
Under the current FIFA tournament bracket, Korea would meet Scotland in the round of 32 in a scenario where Korea finishes first in Group A and Scotland finishes third in Group C and secures a wild-card spot. Ultimately, Clement was effectively predicting that Korea would finish first in its group.
If that becomes reality, it would set a new record in the history of Korean football.
Korea has never finished first in the group at an away World Cup. Also, with this tournament expanded to a 48-nation format, the knockout structure has changed. If Korea advances to the round of 16, it would play five matches in a single away World Cup for the first time in history.
Korea Football Association chairman Chung Mong-gyu also said at a recent one-year anniversary press conference marking his fourth-term inauguration, "I hope the national team plays five matches at the World Cup and returns."
Clement also mentioned the possibility of an upset by Japan. His model predicted the shocking outcome of Japan beating Brazil in the round of 32. He also analyzed that England would reach the semifinals but be eliminated by Portugal.
He projected that the final would be a matchup between the Netherlands and Portugal. Whichever team wins, a first-ever World Cup victory in history would be created.
Clement told the BBC he also feels pressure about his model.
He said, "Because I predicted the winner three times in a row, people now think this model can never be wrong."
He went on to explain, "In fact, this research did not start to make someone money through gambling. It was an attempt to show the arrogance of economists who think they can predict fields they do not know well."
But as a result, his predictions have shown astonishing accuracy at each World Cup. That is why this forecast of Korea reaching the round of 16 is attracting more than mere amusement.
Meanwhile, Hong Myung-bo's team has already begun preparations to adapt to high altitude and North American conditions through a pre-camp in Salt Lake City, Utah, in the United States.
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