With the opening of the 2026 Fédération Internationale de Football Association (FIFA) North America World Cup 48 days away, a supercomputer has released new analysis results.
According to the data on probabilities of advancing through each stage of the 2026 World Cup finals released on the 25th (Korea time) by data analysis firm Opta, Japan recorded a 1.30% probability of winning the championship, ranking first among Asian countries. It was 17th among the 48 countries overall.
This is the highest figure among countries belonging to the Asian Football Confederation (AFC), and it is the only record in Asia to surpass the 1% probability range. This is on par with Ecuador (1.28%) and Croatia (1.48%) in the overall rankings. It has effectively been recognized as one of the dark horses.
The South Korea national football team, coached by Hong Myung-bo, had a 0.42% chance of winning. It was 26th overall, positioned between Egypt (0.34%) and Paraguay (0.48%). Australia (0.32%) and Iran (0.23%) followed, placing them among the top ranks in Asia.
The overall favorite to win was Spain (15.93%). Spain posted an overwhelming 25.12% probability of reaching the final, edging out France (12.30%) and England (10.97%). The defending champion Argentina ranked fourth with 10.56%.
This World Cup will feature 48 teams in the finals for the first time in history, greatly increasing the number of matches. While the data clearly points to Japan as "Asia's No. 1," Korea must overturn the cold probabilities and write a miracle.
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