The trophy they had almost secured is slipping from their hands. Arsenal, which at one point had a 97.6% chance of winning the Premier League, has completely faltered in just a few weeks. And it has collapsed in a worse run than their North London rival Tottenham.
The Sun of Britain highlighted on the 21st (Korean time) that Arsenal's recent collapse is laid bare in the numbers.
The starting point was clear. The Opta supercomputer on April 17 projected that Arsenal's title probability would surge to 98% if they beat Manchester City.
In fact, Arsenal were already leading at the time, and there was a sense that their first league title since the 2003-04 season was within reach if they got past the Man City match. But they failed to hold on at the most important turning point. Losing to Man City began to unsettle the whole picture.
The problem is not simply that they lost one match to Man City. According to The Sun, Arsenal have managed just one win in their last six competitive matches. With one draw and four losses, their form has effectively collapsed.
They were beaten by Man City in the Carabao Cup final, and they were caught by Southampton in the FA Cup. In the league they lost consecutively to Bournemouth and Man City. Although they achieved a place in the Champions League semifinals in the meantime, their domestic campaign has already been completely broken.
What hurts more is the comparison. Over the past six matches, Tottenham have 1 win, 2 draws and 3 losses. While the record of a team fighting relegation cannot be called good, even that was better than Arsenal's.
A team that was looking to win the title has ended up with a more miserable report card than a rival worrying about relegation. This is not just an issue of North London pride; it is a fall that calls into question their very credentials as champions.
The repercussions were immediately reflected in the title picture. Before the Man City defeat, Opta saw Arsenal's title probability at 85.2%, but after the match it dropped to 73.0%.
By the numbers Arsenal may still look ahead. But the mood is completely different. Man City are three points behind with a game in hand, and if they beat Burnley they will be in a position to challenge for the top spot.
That is why local British commentary says Man City have seized the initiative in the title race.
In the end, Arsenal are collapsing again at the most important moment. The figure of a 97.6% title probability has become a basis for ridicule rather than pride.
Worse recent form than Tottenham, successive eliminations and losing streaks, and the initiative shifting to Man City. It is not over yet, but at least the current Arsenal looks more like a team falling apart than a champion in appearance.
The title race is still open. But judging only by form, the side that is shaking the most right now is clearly Arsenal.
[OSEN]