The Los Angeles Dodgers, who won back-to-back World Series titles last year, are predicted to be the No. 1 World Series favorite, while the San Diego Padres, who signed Song Seong-mun (30), were picked as a team whose performance will plummet.
MLB.com, the official Major League Baseball outlet, on the 3rd (Korea time) said, "FanGraphs released its first projected record and postseason probabilities for the 2026 season. Some strong teams appear likely to remain strong this year. For example, the Los Angeles Dodgers are projected to win 100 games and are strong candidates for a third consecutive World Series title. Their postseason probability is 99% and their World Series win probability is 28%," introducing its 2026 season projections.
The Dodgers, who beat Toronto last year to complete back-to-back World Series titles, are again the most likely champion this year. The Dodgers' projected record is 99.5 wins and 62.5 losses, nearly 100 wins, and they are expected to win the National League West. Their postseason probability is 99.1%, the division win probability is 94.1%, and the wild card probability is 4.9%. Their World Series win probability is 27.5%, an overwhelming first place, more than double second-place Atlanta (10.4%).
While the Dodgers were still rated as a strong team, some teams are projected to see a sharp decline compared with last season. The San Diego Padres, familiar to Korean fans after Kim Ha-seong (Atlanta) played there for four years and the team signed Song Seong-mun to a four-year $15 million (about 21.7 billion won) contract this winter, are the team in question. Last season they went 90-72, a .556 winning percentage, finishing second in the National League West and second in the wild card to reach the postseason. But FanGraphs projects San Diego to finish this season 79-83 with a .489 winning percentage, remaining fourth in the National League. Their postseason probability is 21.1% and their World Series win probability is 0.6%.
MLB.com explained, "If you pick the most disappointing projection in the National League, it would be the Padres. The Padres reached the postseason in both 2024 and 2025 and during that period looked like the only team in the National League West that could challenge the Dodgers. But in this season's projections they fall sharply from 90 wins to 79 wins and are analyzed to drop to fourth in the division, behind not only the Dodgers but also the Giants and the Diamondbacks."
San Diego still maintains a competitive lineup after signing Song Seong-mun. Even so, losses such as Dylan Cease and Luis Arraez weakened their evaluation. MLB.com said, "For the Padres, who are lined with talented players such as Fernando Tatis Jr., Manny Machado, Xander Bogaerts, Jackson Merrill, Michael King and Nick Pivetta, this is a rather interesting (and bitter for fans) projection."
FanGraphs' projection shows the Cleveland Guardians as the team with the largest drop in performance. Cleveland won the American League Central last season with an 88-74 record and a .543 winning percentage, but this year they are expected to remain fourth in the division with a 76-86 record and a .467 winning percentage. San Diego followed in second place among declines.
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