Contrary to expectations, local sentiment is far from optimistic. Among Japanese soccer fans looking toward the upcoming 2026 Fédération Internationale de Football Association (FIFA) North and Central America World Cup, pessimistic forecasts are emerging.
The Japan national soccer team was drawn into Group F at the 2026 FIFA North and Central America World Cup. It was grouped with the Netherlands, Tunisia, and the winner of European playoff B (Ukraine·Israel·Sweden·Poland·Finland).
Judging only by the group draw, the prevailing assessment was that it was a 'doable group,' but once actual strength comparisons began, the mood quickly changed.
Objectively, aside from the Netherlands, the group was judged to be manageable, but the problem is the 'realistic difference in class.'
Japan has already begun preparations. The Japan Football Association announced on its official social media that it had confirmed a friendly against the England national soccer team at Wembley Stadium in London on April 1, 2026.
It is intense sparring with the Netherlands match in mind. However, fans see even this as a source of concern.
The Netherlands national soccer team still fields a lineup for which the description 'world-class' would not be inappropriate.
From Cody Gakpo, Memphis Depay, Frenkie de Jong, and Xavi Simons to Micky van de Ven, Matthijs de Ligt, and Virgil van Dijk, the weight across offense and defense is different. From Japan's perspective, the Netherlands are clearly a superior side.
The problem is Tunisia. They were an opponent about whom little information was available, but recent matches at the 2025 Morocco Africa Cup of Nations changed perceptions.
Tunisia beat Uganda 3-1 in the group stage, and although they lost 2-3 to Nigeria, they chased stubbornly until the final moments. Their set pieces, physicality and late-game concentration were enough elements for Japan to find troublesome.
Reaction from Japanese fans who watched the match was notable. According to Japanese media Soccer Digest, they said, "Their momentum in the second half was much stronger than expected," and "If Japan slips up, they could lose all matches."
Other Japanese fans also voiced concerns such as, "Their set pieces are too threatening," and "a very tricky opponent." The initial assessment that it was a 'doable group' is gradually losing persuasive power.
Meanwhile, Japan's best World Cup finish remains the round of 16. From the 2002 Korea-Japan World Cup through 2010 in South Africa, 2018 in Russia and 2022 in Qatar, they have never passed the quarterfinals barrier. The goal has risen, but fans' views are sober. The North and Central American stage is by no means easy.
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