Kiwoom Heroes infielder Song Seong-mun (29) is predicted to appear in only 36 games next season if he moves to the major leagues.
Song Seong-mun, who joined Nexen (now Kiwoom) after being selected in the second draft, fifth round (49th overall) of the 2015 rookie draft, is an infielder who has played 824 KBO League games with a .283 batting average (2,889 at-bats, 818 hits), 80 home runs, 454 RBIs, 410 runs, 51 steals and a .778 OPS. He was not a player who attracted attention through 2023, but he began to blossom last year.
This year he produced outstanding results, hitting .315 in 144 games (574 at-bats, 181 hits) with 26 home runs, 90 RBIs, 103 runs, 25 steals and a .917 OPS, and after the season he was selected as a national team member for exhibition games against the Czech Republic and Japan, where he went 4 for 14 with one home run, four RBIs, two runs, three walks and two steals. On the 20th of last month he officially applied for posting and is challenging the major leagues.
Although Song Seong-mun has declared his intention to move to the major leagues, there have not yet been concrete reports that MLB clubs are interested. Song said little, noting, "I am also waiting for good news from my agent."
Song, who signed a six-year extension in August worth 12 billion won with Kiwoom, has said he would go to the major leagues only if he received offers above that amount. In other words, he means he will not accept a simple challenge such as a minor league contract or a split contract.
In that situation, U.S. baseball statistics site FanGraphs released Song Seong-mun's projected 2026 season performance using its forecasting program Steamer. Steamer projected Song would play 36 games with a .251 batting average (132 at-bats, 33 hits), three home runs, 16 RBIs, 16 runs, three steals and a .679 OPS. His WAR (wins above replacement) was projected at 0.4. Although his hitting was below league average, defensive contributions produced a value above zero. However, the projected numbers are not enough to secure the level of contract Song wants.
Song has received positive evaluations from major league scouts. There are clearly teams that are interested. His age — turning 30 next year — and his desire for a contract worth more than 12 billion won could be obstacles, but many experts give him good marks for his skills.
Nevertheless, FanGraphs predicted Song would appear in only 36 games next season because Steamer tends to forecast players' performance more conservatively than other projection systems. Although it weights recent performance, it uses a mean regression method based on career performance, which tends to produce conservative estimates. Another factor affecting Song's forecast is that among KBO League position players, few have shown outstanding hitting performance in the major leagues.
Over the past two years Song has suddenly grown into one of the league's best players, with a .327 batting average in 286 games (1,101 at-bats, 360 hits), 46 home runs, 194 RBIs, 191 runs, 46 steals and a .921 OPS. Two years ago, not a single person, including Song himself, thought he would challenge the major leagues. He himself said, "I Jung-hoo, Kim Hye-seong and I are in different situations. A case like mine might be the first."
Although he produced outstanding results over two years, his career numbers are not strong, so Steamer appears to have predicted Song's ability very conservatively. In fact, if Song goes to the major leagues, there is plenty of possibility he could perform above the projected numbers.
Song can negotiate with the 30 major league clubs until 7 a.m. on the 22nd. The deadline is now less than a week away. Attention is focused on whether Song can become Kiwoom's sixth major leaguer following Kang Jung-ho, Park Byung-ho, Kim Ha-seong (Atlanta), Lee Jung-hoo (San Francisco) and Kim Hye-seong (Dodgers).
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